There have been some major developments since the initial look at the stats, let’s see how things have changed and what emerges the stats pick for the biggest race of the Cheltenham Festival.

Kauto Star

Now the favourite to win his second Gold Cup and with two wins from three runs this season including his most recent in the King George Chase he meets most stats. In fact, he meets every single stat going except one, he ran in the Gold Cup last year but failed to win.

Denman

Looked a shadow of his former self on his only start this season and as a result of having raced once and failing to win he has to be overlooked.

Neptune Collonges

A win in the Irish Hennessy made him a bet for many punters but with no wins in five runs at Cheltenham it could be that its not his course or that he simply isn’t good enough but he definitely fails some important must have stats so is overlooked as a winner.

Madison Du Berlais

Bolted up in the Levy Board Chase which made it two wins from three runs this season having also won the Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup at Newbury. Has not won in his five runs at Cheltenham which makes him a negative on the stats, it doesn’t look as though it’s his course.

Exotic Dancer

With three runs this season, one of them a winning run, and a good record at Cheltenham he meets most of the stats. Like Kauto Star, if you are backing him you will have to ignore the being beaten in the previous year’s Gold Cup stat, no horse in the last ten runnings has been beaten in the previous year’s Gold Cup when finishing and then won it the following year.

Barbers Shop

Looks a player over the next few years, he could be too lightly raced this season with just two runs and only one win. He could be a contender next season with more runs under his belt.

Albertas Run

Had been looking a possible stats pick before his run in the Levy Board Chase but his third in that race technically means he was unplaced. He has also not won this season in four attempts which is another big negative.

Verdict

It seems for whatever reasons we are going to have to overlook at least one stat this year as there are no bomb proof stats picks. The easiest stat to forgive is the necessity to have won the previous year’s Gold Cup if finishing it.

Denman was an outstanding horse last year and being beaten by him is no shame, it doesn’t look as though he is the same horse this year and if that’s the case then you could look at last year’s race without Denman and make Kauto Star the winner.

The fact that Kauto Star has won twice this season compared to Exotic Dancer‘s one win (Kauto has also finished infront of Exotic in five completed starts) makes him a stats pick in front of Exotic Dancer.

1. Kauto Star
2. Exotic Dancer
3. Barbers Shop/Neptune Collonges

Let us know your thoughts! Are we right to be giving up on Denman after one bad run?

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