Why Take Note Of Stats?

 

In the most competitive races it often pays to take strong notice of the stats for previous winners and the Cheltenham Gold Cup is one of the most competitive races you can find. There is a reason a certain type of horse wins the race year after year, it takes that kind of horse to win the Gold Cup. In this year’s Gold Cup we can start chucking horses out based on the stats on this page Cheltenham Gold Cup Stats.

 

 

This Year’s Gold Cup Hopefuls

 

We can’t see each horse’s final prep run yet which will be important but we can start ruling some horses out. The main contenders at this stage are:

 

Denman – Yet to run this season at the time of writing. He meets the stats that he can have at this stage but the lack of run is a big worry. No horse in the last ten years has won with less than two starts that term (and the ones that raced only twice both won twice so were obviously exceptional). There is no doubt that Denman is exceptional but he would have to win the AON Chase at Newbury (which is expected to be his only run) to be anywhere near considered.

 

Kauto Star – Having won the King George Chase at Kempton on his previous outing is a big positive but he was beaten whilst finishing in last year’s Gold Cup which is a big negative.

 

Neptune Collonges – Not only beaten in last year’s Gold Cup which is a negative but has also failed to win in five runs at Cheltenham which pretty much rules him out.

 

Albertas Run – Just like last year’s winner Denman he won the Royal & SunAlliance the year before taking on the Gold Cup. Has also won two out of three races at Cheltenham. The negative is he has not won a race so far this season but if he wins his final prep race he will go to the Gold Cup with a massive chance.

 

Exotic Dancer – Won the Lexus Chase easily but has been beaten in two previous Gold Cups which is a massive negative. If he was taking in his first Gold Cup this year he would have most stats in his favour but the fact is he probably isn’t quite good enough.

 

Barbers Shop – One of the younger horses in the line up and four of the last five horses who were winning their first Gold Cup were seven years old. Has won this season and finished 2nd at last years Festival which are plusses. He is one of the few in the race that can potentially pass every MUST HAVE stat come race time. He will need to run once more in the next few weeks and place in that race to do so.

 

Tidal Bay – Won at last year’s Festival and has a good record at Cheltenham which is good. He has won this season and is another who is likely to pass most stats if not all unless he runs again before the Festival and unplaces.

 

Star De Mohaison – Has a fair Cheltenham record (2 from 6) but didn’t run at last year’s Festival which is a negative. Has also yet to win a race this season so far.

 

 

So Who Do We Back?

 

Those at the head of the market are failing some very important stats and for most it is going to be impossible to go to the race as the stats choice for one reason or another. This is good for punters as it means we are left with value selections.

 

Tidal Bay is the main stats pick at this stage but he could still go for other races at the Festival. The fact he has never been out of the top two means if he does go for the Gold Cup he will be a fantastic each way bet.

 

Barbers Shop is another who looks very good on the stats and at a nice price can be backed each way. Albertas Run needs a win this season if he is going to warrant a bet but excuses can be made for his defeats this season and even if he doesn’t win this season before the Gold Cup he could still carry a small interest.

 

Check Back Soon

 

The final prep runs are going to tell us more about each horse and narrow things down further. It is strongly possible that in a couple of weeks there will be one big priced clear pick for the stats and that will certainly be worth a bet. An update will be made after the final preps.

 

Share Your Thoughts With Us

 

Do you fancy one of the stats no hopers such as Neptune Collonges? If so make a case for it and let us know what you think. He may be one of the favourites (at time of writing) but we think he has no chance.

 

If you think we are wrong to hold Cheltenham Gold Cup stats in such high regard then reply to this blog and make a case for only considering form. Are there any bigger priced horses that we haven’t considered that fit the stats perfectly? If there are then we want to know about it.