In recent years the winners of the Hennessy have gone on to run in the Cheltenham Gold Cup as one of the more fancied records but regularly fail to make the grade.

2006 Winner State Of Play finished 6th in the Gold Cup at 8/1
2005 Winner Trabolgan missed the Gold Cup through injury
2004 Winner Celestial Gold finished 7th in the Gold Cup at 9/2
2003 Winner Strong Flow missed that season’s Gold Cup through injury but finished 6th in the following season’s at 5/1

Denman is currently a general 7/2 favourite for the Hennessy and is 5/1 second favourite for the Gold Cup. This will have to be a very good performance from Denman if he is to win on his seasonal reappearance carrying top weight in one of the most competitive handicaps of the jumps season.

It may sound odd but Denman may hold a better chance in the Cheltenham Gold Cup if he doesn’t win. Not only do Hennessy winners have a bad record but it is likely he will have to be at peak fitness to lump this weight around and win and it is unlikely he can be kept at peak fitness until March by which team he would surely be over the top.

So the best bet at this stage? Back Denman for the Cheltenham Gold Cup before the Hennessy with a view to laying off after the race at shorter odds. If Denman wins or runs well his odds should come in for the Cheltenham Gold Cup and a profit can be guaranteed. It will take a very poor performance for Denman to drift and if that happens you should get a good price about him the next time he runs when he should have improved for his seasonal reappearance.

Reaction the betting moves ofter the race will be available on Monday.

This entry was posted on Thursday, November 29th, 2007 at 3:58 pm and is filed under Gold Cup. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.