Dunguib 5/6 Supreme Novices Hurdle

Quevega 6/4 David Nicholson Mares Hurdle

Master Minded 10/11 Queen Mother

Big Bucks 8/13 Stayers Hurdle

Kauto Star 8/11 Gold Cup

How many of the above do you think will win and how many will you be backing or laying?

Which of the big five would you be most happy to take on?

Personally it would have to be Quevega. OK, she is the biggest price of the five but it could be argued that the she has pontentially the easiest task with a very weak looking set of mares to take on. However, the snippets of info coming from the Mullins yard have not been overly enthusiastic about her chances and he has been quoting as saying things like ‘hopefully she will warm up over the first two hurdles’ and that the injury she suffered after he visit to France was, at one time, considered career ending.
I couldn’t dream of taking 6/4 about a horse with this kind of background.

Let us know your Cheltenham betting banker and lay of the five short favourites.

However, Cheltenham Betting punters have had the race made slightly less complicated by the unfortunate withdrawal of last year’s third place horse, Binocular.

It could be argued that the picture was also made clearer by Zaynar’s defeat at long odds on at Kelso – hardly the ideal Champion Hurdle preparation?

Those two horses are trained by Nicky Henderson who also has last year’s winner Punjabi ready to run this weekend in the hastily re-arranged Champion Hurdle trial at Kempton. The 2009 Champ could also do with a form boost after two defeats so far this season.

With last year’s runner-up Celestial Halo also, arguably, not running up to form this season the focus shifts on to horses who have not run in the two mile championship before, in the shape of Solwhit, Go Native and Medermit.

It can surely be argued that these ‘new kids’ have the vastly superior form this time round and the title looks likely to rest between them.

Here at Cheltenham Betting we have nailed our colours to Go Native who will be aiming not only for the Champion Hurdle but the WBX Million Pound bonus for winning the Fighting Fifth Hurdle at Newcastle and the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton. Go Native would prefer decent ground and as long as its not too soft must have a great chance of winning the 2010 Champion Hurdle.

Go Native features as one of our Cheltenham Tips – make sure you keep checking that page between now and the Festival to see who else we will be recommending.

On the face of things we are struggling for a viable alternative to the power duo from the Paul Nicholls yard so last year’s RSA Chase winner would seem the each-way thieves ideal pick now he appears to have put in another top-class performance. Or is he?

Plus Points:

• Already a Cheltenham Festival winner so the course and fences hold no fears.
• Came close to winning a Grade One last time out so apparently in good form.
• Trainer Willie Mullins stated before that race that he was concerned his horse might not be 100% fit so an even better performance could be expected at Cheltenham.

Negatives:

• The RSA Chase he won last year has turned out to be a sub-standard renewal of that race.
• The Hennessy Gold Cup last Sunday was run at an absolute crawl and is no real indication of Grade One form (or fitness).
• It could be argued that his overall form is no better than Taranis or What A Friend and they can be backed at three times the price.

So, Cooldine, excellent each-way bet for the Cheltenham Gold Cup or over rated and likely to flop – let us know which side you would be on?

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It could be argued that Kauto’s price is unlikely to contract much between now and Gold Cup day but is that true? Paul Nicholls has stated that keeping Kauto Star fresh is the key to him and we are therefore unlikely to see the son of Village Star again before March 19th. However, this does not mean that his price cannot shorten between then and now. It’s a brave punter who is prepared to look outside the front two in the Gold Cup for their Cheltenham Tips and an improved performance from one of the ‘pretenders’ in unlikely to make a dent in Kauto’s price but stablemate Denman does have the power to affect the current Gold Cup Betting.

Denman is due to run again before the Gold Cup, either in the Irish Hennessy or the Aon Chase a week later at Newbury. He is likely to be a short-price for either race but the Irish race in particular would not be a penalty kick and has the potential to cause an upset to Denman fans. Other horses that have been quoted for Leopardstown include Joncol, Money Trix, Notre Pere, Cooldine and Madison Du Berlais and whilst Denman should deal with these horses it’s not impossible for the travelling and heavy ground to contribute extra stress into a tricky race.
If Denman wins I wouldn’t imagine the Gold Cup Betting would be affected as a win is expected but if Denman got beat we could see Kauto Star shorten up to a very short price indeed.
I wouldn’t normally advocate backing an 11/8 shot two months before the Festival but I think there is the potential for a big swing in the ante-post punters favour here if he or she were to take Kauto Star’s Gold Cup Odds.

What are your thoughts? Are you tempted to back Kauto now or will you keep your money in your pocket until the day of the race?

Maybe you think Tranquil Sea can follow up his Paddy Power win in the Ryanair or that Punchestowns is the one to be on in the RSA Chase?

Please give us all your thoughts on any of the races at the Cheltenham Festival 2010 not covered in the other four threads.

Lots of people surely would as he was a convincing winner of this race in 2009 and the majority of the horses currently quoted as potential opposition look unlikely to be lining up in the World Hurdle in 2010.

The opposing view is that quotes at around the Even money mark are very skinny price for any horse months in advance of the race.

We desperately need some viable alternatives to Big Bucks as possible ante-post selections for the World Hurdle – give us your thoughts and cheltenham tips on this page.

The Champion Hurdle has in recent years thrown up winners from very different backgrounds – horses that started life on the flat have provided the last three winners (Punjabi, Katchit and Sublimity) but the three winners before that (Brave Inca, Hardy Eustace and Rooster Booster) were all traditionally bred National Hunt horses.

Does this mean that we now moving towards seeing a flat race pedigree as a major positive for your Champion Hurdle selection? Or can the traditional NH bred still hold its own?

There have been plenty of winners in the past with a flat heritage (Kribensis, Royal Gait, Alderbrook and even the mighty Istabraq to name just a few) so it may just be that there will always be this swing between NH breds and horses from the flat or have changes to the course at Cheltenham and the improved drainage etc swung things in favour of horses from off of the level once and for all?

Give us your thoughts and tips for the 2010 Champion Hurdle and let us know if you prefer a horse with a NH pedigree or something from a group race winning sire?

Is that how you see the blue ribbon of steeplechasing panning out this season or do you think that the Paul Nicholls’ ten year old has got his work cut out fending off the youngsters? Has his narrowest of victories over Imperial Commander on his reappearance at Haydock made you even more convinced of a Kauto Star Gold Cup treble or are you now scrambling through the ante-post market looking for a viable alternative to the Champion?

What about the other gold cup runners? Now Denman has won his second Hennessy can he regain the Gold Cup? Will Cooldine blossom from Novice champ to Gold Cup king? Will Imperial Commander see out the trip as impressively at Cheltenham as he did at Haydock?

Or is there something else lurking in the depths of the ante-post market that will spring up to become Kauto’s biggest challenger?

Let us know your gold cup tips for the Cheltenham Gold Cup 2010.

No horse has achieved a hat-trick of wins in the Champion Chase since Badsworth Boy in 1983-85 and there will surely be plenty of people looking to oppose the current champion after his reappearance where he appeared to hang to his right and finished in close proximity to two horses rated 20lb+ inferior to him.

If Master Minded is not your ante-post selection for the 2010 Queen Mother then the race appears wide open for any number of potential new champions. Second season chasers Forpadytheplasterer and Kalahari King must come into the equation as must established stars such as Well Chief and possibly even former champ Voy Por Ustedes who could return to the minimum distance if it appears there is a chink in Master Minded’s armour.

Twist Magic’s excellent performance in winning the Tingle Creek has seen his price for the Queen Mother evaporate but surely he has shown his dislike for Cheltenham on anough occasions to be seen as eminently opposable at single figure odds? What do you think?

A fascinating run-up to the race looks certain – let us know who your cheltenham tips for the Queen Mother Champion Chase 2010.