Stats The Way To Do It
Posted by adminMar 7
Don’t underestimate the stats this Cheltenham Festival. They might not be the be all and end all of every punter’s betting strategy but it is worth considering at least some of them. Last year many people were keen to point out that 5 year olds struggle in the Champion Hurdle. This didn’t stop Detroit City going off 6/4 favourite, only to be beaten by almost 20 lengths.
So, what stats should we look out for and who should we oppose this year on that basis?
The handicaps (especially the chases) are very stat friendly races. Generally put a line through anything carrying more than 11 stone and favour horses that are 7, 8 or 9.
In the Champion Chase it is normally best to stick to horses in the top three of the market. The favourite, Master Minded, has to overcome the poor record of 5 year olds (not won in over ten years). Eighteen of the last twenty three Champion Chase winners had placed at the Festival before. Master Minded has never run at the Festival, Twist Magic has only fallen on his only Festival run whereas current champ, Voy Por Ustedes, has won in two from two runs at the Festival.
Another race with strong trends is the opening race of the Festival, the Supreme Novices Hurdle. Thirty of the last thirty five winners won last time out and thirty of the last thirty three winners were five or six. That should rule out plenty of runners, even some at the head of the market.
Stats and trends shouldn’t completely put you off something you fancy but they are trends for a reason and more often than not they will prove correct. At the very least you should be considering them in every race you are betting on, if not following them.
There are plenty of stats, trends and advice on http://www.cheltenham-betting.co.uk/. This site will provide you with everything you need to know about the Cheltenham Festival and Cheltenham Festival Betting so make sure you add it to your favourites.
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