Spread Betting Tips for The Cheltenham Festival
Posted by adminMar 9
Spread Betting is still a mysterious way of gambling to many but it is a hugely exciting medium and with the 2011 Cheltenham Festival just days away, it is the perfect time to open an account for your Cheltenham betting.
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Between now and the Supreme Novices’ ‘Roar’ on Tuesday, we will be looking at some of the Festival Markets and to kick-off with an easy one, let’s consider the ‘Biggest Winning SP’ index.
Quite simply, the biggest winning SP across the four-days constitutes the make/up and the quote with extrabet.com is currently 47.5 – 49*, with a maximum make up of 100.
Since the festival was switched to 4-days in 2005, the highest winning SP’s have been 40/1, 50/1, 50/1, 66/1, 33/1 & 40/1.
Had we bought each year at 49, we would have had three profitable years but on average, lost 2.5 times our unit stake. So that’s a poor result? No, I don’t think it is. Remember that we could have a 100/1 winner, a result which would give us a massive 51 point profit or an 80/1 winner giving a profit of 31 points.
Playing with scenarios, if we felt we could stand the loss of 2.5 points each year (and accept what I think is a very worst case scenario of a 33/1 winner being the highest SP in any one year – losing 16 points), then we could have 20 years of 2.5 average loss but be in profit if the 21st year turned up a 100/1 winner. If there happened to be a couple of years in 21 where the winning SP was 100/1, then we would be 103.5 points up, a good return.
My feeling is that is a genuine chance of a 66/1, 80/1 or 100/1 victor over the four days and I would be surprised if we did not see an SP of at least 40/1. My conclusion therefore is that this market has very limited upside for sellers but a big potential for buyers, with real prospects of a decent return. I recommend buying at 49* with extrabet.com.
Note that the content of this article is the opinion of the author and does not constitute financial advice. Spread betting carries a high risk and it is essential to understand the risks involved before placing a bet.
*Prices may fluctuate.
2 comments
Comment by sports arbitrage trading on March 9, 2011 at 5:47 pm
Spread betting needs careful consideration though, because you can lose more than you stake, especially if you “sell” and therefore have unlimited downside, and especially in cricket!!! Think selling number of runs.
Pingback by Spread Betting Favourites Index for the Cheltenham Festival is a Buy! :Cheltenham Festival Blog on March 11, 2011 at 1:17 pm
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