Unsurprisingly it is the first three in the betting, Kasbah Bliss, Punchestowns and Big Bucks who meet the majority of the stats to emerge as most likely World Hurdle Winners.

Kasbah Bliss

Meets all of the must have stats, he is trained in the UK or France, he ran in the World Hurdle last season finishing 2nd and came first or second in his most recent start. If he wins the World Hurdle he will not be ‘ruining’ any of our stats. However it should be noted he has failed to win in four runs at Cheltenham, only one of the last ten winners had that bad a record and he has also run just once this season, two or three runs is preferable.

Punchestowns

His 100% record this season may have gone but he still finished 2nd on his final prep run. He meets all of the must have stats as well as all of the preferable stats. Of the last ten winners of the World Hurdle, three ran in the Cleeve Hurdle, two of which finished 2nd. This shows Cleeve Hurdle form is often reversed, probably due to the fact that some horses carry Group One penalties in the race. All of the stats point to Punchestowns.

Big Bucks

May fit most of the stats well but fails on one key stat, he ran at the Festival last year but it wasnt in the Supreme Novices Hurdle or World Hurdle, no horse in the last ten years has managed to win the World Hurdle with that record. He may well run well but it will be a slight upset for the stats if he triumphs.

Our stats prediction:

1. Punchestowns
2. Kasbah Bliss
3. Big Bucks

Let us know your thoughts!

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