Cheltenham Festival Champion Hurdle – Let Stats Give You The Winner
Posted by adminJan 22
This Year’s Champion Hurdle Hopefuls
We can’t see each horse’s final prep run yet which will be important but we can start ruling some horses out. The main contenders at this stage are:
Binocular – Ticks several boxes but fails others. If he wins his final start then he is obviously a contender but at the price now, it may be better to look elsewhere for value.
Sublimity - Serious question marks as is 9 years old and has poorer than 50%
Crack Away Jack – Won at last year’s Festival and has 100%
Celestial Halo – Won at last year’s Festival and has 100%
Katchit – Won at last year’s Festival and has more than 50%
Osana - Serious question marks as has poorer than 50%
Punjabi - Serious question marks as has poorer than 50%
Sizing
Snap Tie – Serious question marks as has poorer than 50%
Jered – Overlooked as did not run at last year’s Festival and has never run at
Hurricane Fly – Overlooked as did not run at last year’s Festival and has never run at
Harchibald – Overlooked as ran poorly at last year’s Festival
So Who Do We Back?
Celestial Halo and Crack Away Jack have already been well beaten by the current Champion Hurdle favourite Binocular but there is always a chance form will be turned around, as it often is, at
Katchit would look a great bet on stats but has been very much out of form this season. If he gets back to his old ways and wins his final prep race that would put him bang in there with a fantastic chance. A win for Katchit and defeat for the three five year olds in their final prep runs would make Katchit look an amazing bet according to the stats.
Check Back Soon
With the final prep runs still to be had for many of the top contenders it may be best to hold your bets until they have been run. I will revisit this blog once all the preps are out of the way.
Share Your Thoughts With Us
Do you fancy one of the stats no hopers such as Sublimity? If so make a case for it and let us know what you think. He may be a previous winner and second favourite (at time of writing) but we think he has no chance.
If you think we are wrong to hold these key looking stats in such high regard then reply to this blog and make a case for only considering form. Are there any bigger priced horses that we haven’t considered that fit the stats perfectly? If there are then we want to know about it.
One comment
Comment by admin on February 16, 2009 at 5:30 pm
UPDATE
Most of the prep runs have been had now so we can come up with some firm views about the Champion Hurdle.
Here is a look at how the main contenders fit the important Champion Hurdle stats:
Binocular
The hot favourite ticks plenty of boxes, most importantly having won his most recent start but it looks as though he will be going to the Festival off a break of 80 days which has never been done before. Those on at bigger prices may not worry too much but at the current prices it could pay to look elsewhere.
Osana
Didn’t win his last race, hasn’t won this season and has a relatively poor Cheltenham record (just one win in five). Also fails a number of preferable stats so best to look elsewhere.
Crack Away Jack
A win at last year’s Cheltenham Fesitval is in his favour but he finished fifth on his latest start and has not run since December. Needs a run and a win very soon if it is to be considered but that seems unlikely so give it a miss.
Celestial Halo
Won at last year’s Festival, won his most recent start, has a 100% Cheltenham record (one from one), has had it’s prep run within 51 days of the Champion Hurdle. At the moment it looks as though he will be heading to the Festival as the stats pick.
Katchit
Has not won this season and is going into the race with a long break (80 days) so from a stats perspective must be overlooked despite his great Cheltenham record).
Sublimity
Pretty much fails every stats category possible, the biggest stats lay at the Festival probably.
Ashkazar
Won his most recent start which puts him in the reckoning and the fact it was in the Kingwell Hurdle is a positive. He has a good Cheltenham Festival run under his belt (2nd in last year’s Fred Winter)and has won half his starts this year. Ticks all the must have boxes and goes there with a good chance.
Verdict
It seems as though the five year olds could dominate this year with all of the older horses facing severe question marks.
The two that seem best on the stats are Celestial Halo and Ashkazar. We give slight preference to Celestial Halo as he already has a Cheltenham Festival win to his name.
Binocular and Katchit have plenty of positives but a couple of strong negatives and whilst neither will uphold the stats if they win, they will probably still put in a good run.
1. Celestial Halo
2. Ashkazar
Let us know your thoughts, are we right to say Binocular is worth a miss at the current price or is it the banker of the Festival?
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