Why Take Note Of Stats?

In the most competitive races it often pays to take strong notice of the stats for previous winners. There is a reason a certain type of horse wins a race year after year, it takes that kind of horse to win the race. In this year’s Champion Chase we can start chucking horses out based on the stats on this page Champion Chase Stats.

This Year’s Champion Chase Hopefuls

We can’t see each horse’s final prep run yet which will be important but we can start ruling some horses out. The main contenders at this stage are:

Master Minded – Looks by far the most likely winner. If he wins the Game Spirit Chase at Newbury like last season he will meet every single criteria.

Big Zeb – Not much to go on yet as didn’t run at last year’s Festival and hasn’t run at Cheltenham. At the time of writing he has had just one start this year and won it so if he races just once more before the Festival (more than one is very unlikely) he will fail the number of runs stat and if he doesn’t run he again he will fail the days between final prep race and the Festival stat.

Petit Robin – Has run at Cheltenham but not won there so that rules it out.

Voy Por Ustedes – Needs to win this season and likely to go for the Ryan Air Chase (where it should win) but passed over for this.

Tidal Bay – Won the Arkle Chase last year and has a good record at Cheltenham in his favour but he could go for either the Ryan Air Chase or the Gold Cup so hold your bets at this stage.

Well Chief – Fits the not having run at last year’s Festival and having won at Cheltenham stat but has not run since April 2007 so would need to run once and win before the Festival to be considered stats wise.

Twist Magic – Two poor runs at Cheltenham and running poorly at the previous year’s Festival make Twist Magic a horse to avoid. Hasn’t won yet this season either.

Takeroc – Would fit a number of stats if winning in the next few weeks but needs to do exactly that to be considered.

So Who Do We Back?

No prizes for originality but short priced favourite Master Minded is the stats choice by a mile. With the short price you may decide that a punt on a very large winning distance is the best value (10 lengths looks probable, 15 lengths is likely and more than 20 should even be considered).

There is also money to be made in who will finish second to Master Minded. There is a without Master Minded market and of course you can always place forecasts on the Champion Chase. Voy Por Ustedes and Tidal Bay are both likely to be running in other Festival races but would appeal if participating and Well Chief could give it a go if running in and winning a prep run soon.

If those three fail to make it then Big Zeb or at a much bigger price Takeroc should be given a chance to finish second.

Check Back Soon

Master Minded looks an easy winner at the moment but at the price it could be best to wait until closer to the race before getting involved. After the prep races we will be able to rule a few more horses in or out so that we can then decide what will come second. I will revisit this blog once all the preps are out of the way.

Share Your Thoughts With Us

Do you fancy one of the stats no hopers such as Petit Robin? If so make a case for it and let us know what you think. He may be one of the favourites (at time of writing) but we think he has no chance.

If you think we are wrong to hold stats in such high regard then reply to this blog and make a case for only considering form. Are there any bigger priced horses that we haven’t considered that fit the stats perfectly? If there are then we want to know about it.