We continue our series of posts looking at the Cheltenham Festival Betting favourites, the best bankers and the likely blow outs.  Here Marc Owen Banks shares the key stats with us and gives us his verdict on which favourites you can bank on and which you should lay.

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Everyone loves a favourite don’t they? Every punter across the land has their Banker for the week lined up, sometimes, weeks or months in advance. Who are the bankers for 2011 and how can we expect them to get on. Will the smiles be on the faces of happy punters or happier layers on the rails?

Here we take a look into past performances of the favourites over recent seasons at the festival and see if there any angles to be had in backing a shortie at arguably the most competitive National Hunt meeting of them all.

Since 2002 there have been 3970 runners take on the Prestbury Park course over the Festival week; Of those, 226 have been sent off Sp favourite, singularly, joint or Co-Favs. Of those 226 favourites, 50 have returned home first to justify the support. That is a below average 22% strike rate, and as you might imagine, if backing them all blindly there would be a hole in the pocket of the favourite backer. A 15% loss of investment equates to a £32.40 loss to every pound invested.

A quick look at each year in isolation shows us that this has not been the case every year and in fact the biggest losses have been seen only in recent seasons, 2010 would have seen a 12.17 loss as only four favourites scored in 27 races. The year the bookies made hay was 2008. Just 2 winning favourites meant a whopping loss of 75% of the bank. So perhaps this is the year when the bookies take a hiding again?

Only three years in the last ten would have seen favourite backers bank a profit. 2006 was the last time, then 2004 and in 2003 10 of the 22 races were won by favourites.

So will this year be a week for the backers or layers?

There is one angle that has proven to be a profitable one for backing the market leaders over the years. Surprisingly, it would seem the “Bankers” as they are described don’t do so badly. If following only those priced between Evens and 15/8 blindly a strike rate of 50% would have been had with 16 winners from 32 qualifiers. For a £7.67 profit or 23%ROI.

Ruby Walsh is not a bad bet when on a favourite, he has ridden 40 favourites in the time frame researched, scoring with 15of those for a 37% strike rate and £12.38 profit to level stakes would have kept many happy.

So who are this years bankers? Who do we back and who do we lay?.My thoughts in brackets

Supreme Novices Hurdle – Cue Card  (BACK)

Champion Hurdle – Binocular  (BACK)

David Nicholson Hurdle – Quevega  (LAY)

RSA – Time For Rupert  (BACK)

Champion Chase – Master Minded  (LAY)

World Hurdle – Big Bucks  (LAY)

Gold Cup – Imperial Commander  (BACK)

Foxhunters Chase – Baby Run (LAY)

I predict  four of these will win at most, and if playing  a Yankee would include

Cue Card – Binocular – Time For Rupert and Imperial Commander.