5 comments

1. 

   Comment by teddyt on December 18, 2009 at 11:23 am

   Go Native for me here. The time of his win in the Supreme Novices compared well with last year’s Champion and I think he was relatively overlooked early season because of some lesser performances on soft ground – the key could be good ground.
   As for NH breds over flat breds I think the flat boys are becoming more dominant which is a bit of a shame but as this is supposed to be a ’speed’ test perhaps its not too much of an issue?

2. 

   Comment by jay on January 6, 2010 at 3:14 pm

   I really love the champion hurdle,and it is probably one of the most successful races for me from a financial sense over the festival. I backed the winner last year at a ridiculously over priced 33-1(Punjabi),and i can certainly see him going close again. Binocular i thought would have a great chance this year,but though not totally bad,i think its fair to say he has been a bit dissapointing this season-especially when beaten last time out behind go native in the christmas hurdle at kempton.I think the form on paper tells a lie,in that he was beaten under 2 lengths-but that was in my opinion only due to the winner stopping like he had been shot(as he always does) when hitting the front,and binocular looking flat footed to me. People may point to the fact that the champion is a ‘proper’ test,and that with the fast pace sure to be generated,this will help his cause-but its worth remembering that he bullied his opponents in small fields last year,and people were questioning wether or not he would get home up the hill.
   For me,as long as the ground is decent,Go Native must have an astounding chance. He travels like a dream(just watch the kempton race-the jockey was almost laughing at them over the last),jumps well and can deliver a high class turn of foot,and can do it off a fast pace(festival winner last year). Carberry will be back in the saddle at cheltenham,and expect a ‘balls of steel’ ride(similar to the one he gave Harchibald-and was berated for by armchair punters),where he will try and hold him until up the run in.
   I just think this horse has too much class for anything in the race. Celestial Halo should again go well,but will almost certainly be a sitting duck after the last.

   As for the question about NH versus flat,its worth pointing out that of the last 17 runnings,10 runnings have gone to ex flat(and 3 of those were from the mighty Istabraq),while 7 have gone to the NH horses. I think this to me says that there is nothing in it,and it is probably down to the fact that the NH horses that have been around in the last 3 runnings were past their peak and just met better class horses.
   Its probably also worth pointing out that Saddlers wells(sire of Istabraq) could arguably be classed as a dual purpose stallion. He has a 12% strike rate over timber to 17% on the level,and has sired other top class winter game performers like Pridwell,Essex,Theatreworld and Ashley park.
   Gunner B (sire of royal gait) was also dual purpose,and Alderbrook(sire Ardross) could also be questioned as true flat bred. Food for thought..

3. 

   Comment by toomany on January 12, 2010 at 6:54 pm

   A very open race again this year with a lot of talking horses meeting the old guard. Dunguib at around 20/1 and Medermit at 33/1 looks each way value in January.

4. 

   Comment by Neil S on January 12, 2010 at 9:35 pm

   Nicky Henderson’s plan seemed up in the air at the moment.
   The welsh champion hurdle at the new course (Ffos Las) apparently was not a graded event so will not be reschuled as the course have to pay for it themselves. Nick says he running out of options for his three (Zaynar, Punjabi & Binocular ) without clashing.

   Could they be a shock here. Probably!

5. 

   Comment by Marc Owen Banks on February 26, 2010 at 11:12 pm

   The Champion Hurdle
   The Champion Hurdle

   This has been on of the most talked about and most discussed races in the run up to the Festival. The form has come and gone, some good, some bad, and the market has not stood still for five minutes. Once fancied runners disappointing on pre festival outings and others not getting to the course due to the weather, but one thing is for sure, this is shaping up to be one the races of the week. The shortlist can pretty much include all but a couple of the entries and working through the form of these runners is a minefield, with one line contradicting another at many stages of the research. So lets look at each of the main runners to see if we can shed some light on which way the trophy will go in 2010

   Go Native has long been in and around the favourites position but due to the form of others we have seen since christmas, has now filled the position at the head of the market. We have seen him four times on the course this season, the only time he has failed to come home first was in Ireland when finishing a well beaten second as it was to Voler De Vedette at Down Royal. Some have come out in defence of that performance and said that he wasnt fully fit for the run, but bearing in mind he had made his seasonal debut only four weeks earlier at Tipperary winning with ease in a small field, I dont quite buy into it. I cant put my finger on exactly what it was, but he was soundly beaten in the end and it worries me. He has of course since come back to win the Fighting Fifth, with the likes of Sublimity and Solwhit in behind, and then the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton beating the likes of Binocular and Starluck into second place. So against rivals he will probably face again here he has some oneupmanship. He has shown he can handle the idiosyncrasis of the Cheltenham course by winning the Supreme Novices here on day one last year, although, and here is where I get shot down, I dont think it was the best Supreme Novices we have had in recent times. He has of course come on since then, and he is a main contender for sure. Around the 10/3 mark, I would like to see a bit of 4/1 maybe 9/2 to seriously consider getting involved.

   Solwhit as we have already mentoned found Go Native too good at Newcastle, but has since returned to win twice at Leopardstown, beating Sublimity twice and Celestial Halo by a short margin when Paul Nichols sent him over for the Irish Champion Hurdle. The defeat by Go Native was his only defeat in seven races, and in fact he has now won 8 of his last 10. I think he will be suited to the track at Cheltenham, and its worth noting that he was held up in the Fighting Fifth. A position that he doesnt usually take. I’m not totally convinced we saw the best of him that day, and it may have been the way the race was run rather than his rivals that beat him that day, I think he has an excellent chance and would have him ahead of Go Native in the book. Thats not to say i would bet him at 10/3, but I think he has every chance of reversing the Fighting Fifth form.

   One that only came into contention for this race really a couple of runs ago was Khyber Kim when winning the Greatwood hurdle at Cheltenham. Not unfancied on the day, he was ridden brilliantly by Paddy Brennan. Of course that was a handicap and he did it off a good mark, but previous attempts in top class races had fallen short of the mark. That was, until he turned up in the Boylesports International Hurdle at the same venue. What he did that day, really put him into peoples mind for this race. On the day Celestial Halo was a very short priced and heavily fancied favourite, coming off the back of a good win at Wincanton, and was going well with only Kyber Kim for company coming to the last. The race had not been run at a great pace and Paddy Brennan had been going about his business very quietly throughout, giving his mount plenty of cover and just getting pull from the remainder of the field, he was always going well, and coming to the last was in contention when Celestail Halo made a mistake, and although some may argue, handed the race to Khyber Kim I would rather think that Paddy Brennan had the race in the bag already and would have beaten him on the flat in any case. He never really had to ask the horse to do too much and another performance like that has him right there for this. The only doubt I have with this one from Nigel Twiston Davis is his previous two festival performances have been poor, he has improved this term, theres no doubt about that but its a sticking point in my mind.

   Now we come to one with whom I have sided with for this race for a long long time this season and only of late have I started to doubt my loyalty. Not through his own performances, but simply what others have been doing around him. Zaynar first came to my attention on debut when beating my fancy for the race at Newbury, Walkon. He was then unbackable at 1/5 odds next time out before meeting with Walkon again in the Triumph Hurdle last season at the festival. I opposed him again with Walkon on the day, [but did have him in the exacta!!!], and although Walkon got much closer than the first time this was still an improved performance. Since then I have been a big fan and followed him to Ascot where he put in probably his best performance to date beating a top class field in the Coral Ascot Hurdle, and then, to Cheltenham, with a much easier task at short odds in a small field. He did what he had to do on the day and was not extended. Then came the piece of form where he has been all but written off by some for this race. Sent off 1/14 favourite in a class 2 hurdle at Kelso with only three rivals to beat, he failed to do so, in spectacular fashion. Quweto had led throughout and Zaynar had been sat behind him. With the other two runners well beaten the run for home began, and Zaynar unbelievably found nothing as the leader just kept on to the line eventually beating the 1/14 favourite by an unchallenged length. Now, whilst I have no sympathy for anyone who bets at odds those short, and hindsight is a wonderful thing, I simply think there was not enough going on to keep him switched on throughout the race and the adrenelin was just not there for a fighting finish. It may be to my detriment that I am going to ignore this piece of form, and consider his unbeaten record coming up the hill at Cheltenham, his will for a fight in a decent sized field and suggest he is a good price at 8/1. Its at least a couple of points too big in my book.

   Punjabi is almost the forgotten horse in all of this being beaten by many of the rivals he will face today over the course of the season, but we must also remember that Nicky Hendersons superstar also raises his game when the stakes are high. He ran brilliantly and fought out one of the best finishes at last years festival when holding off both the re opposing Celestial Halo and the favourite on the day, Binocular, in this very race last year. In fact, I would even go on to say that his performance, ratings wise, although finishing runner up to Solwhit, in the Champion hurdle at Puchestown next time up, was even better on ratings. We have seen him only twice this term in fourth in the International hurdle won by Khyber Kim and again when a 4 length runner up to Medermit in a race he was expected to win. On the ratings that was probably an improved performance from the previous outing and he is on course once again to peak at the Festival and add another element to the outcome. Even though he is a little way down the market, it would be folly to write off his chances after he overcame the five year old voodoo when third behind the five year old winner Katchit in 2008, and then winning last year. I think he has a great chance of scoring the double.

   We get down as far as Medermit in the betting now and still we could be speaking of the winner, as already mentioned, his beating of Punjabi last time is a good guide as to his ability. As is his neck defeat by Go Native in the Supreme last year and twice being close to Khyber Kim. The fact that he has been beaten on several occasions now by rivals he will face in the race has to be a negative, but he is still improving all the time as a 6 year old and that is in his favour against some of his older rivals. Again 9/1 but not out of consideration.

   Both Celestial Halo and Starluck have been thouroughly covered through form lines of those already metioned and sit round the 14/1 mark for the event. A little clsoer look at Starlucks runs maybe in order. He is the youngster in the field and we have not seen him since finshing only a head second to Go Native at Kempton on Boxing Day. I cant work out if that is a negative for Go Native or a positive for Starluck, but what I do know, is the fact that the Fleming runner has youth on his side and improvement to come, whilst Go Native comes into this a seven year old and as good as he is likely to be over hurdles at this trip makes me question the parity in their prices. In essence as mentioned in Go Natives section I would like to see him a bigger price, whilst Starlucks price looks a bit genrous. Its another piece of this intruiging puzzle that is the Champion Hurdle.

   Sublimity and Donnas Palm are on the fringes here I think, and below that we have only hope for the runners, the winner I am sure will come from this group above. One thing is for sure, we are in for a classic race I am certain. But the question is, who will out victorious and be the last into the paddock and to the winners spot in the unsaddling enclosure?

   Summary: Go Native is a really strong contender, but Starluck could be being dismissed, with their close form lines, it thows a little bit of doubt over the pair for me. Solwhit comes ahead of these two then. I think maybe Khyber Kim has shown his best last time and im not sure if it will be enough for this race on the day although with scalps all over the place he will be in the thick of things, and if going well still, coming round the bottom bend with two to take, he will be short with the in running punters. Last years winner Punjabi cannot be dismissed and can win this race, and Zaynar, last race ignored has done nothing wrong on his way here.. So, Solwhit, Zaynar or Punjabi? Punjabi I am including on past glories and supposition that he is improving to peak for the race again, Zaynar I am romantically ignoring that last run which could turn out to be a mistake, but we can be assured he will stay up the hill, as will Punjabi, Solwhit looks the strongest contender for me, but has never faced the course and is not the right price based on that. Now he has drifted in the market, Zaynar has to be the one, I have been with him a long time, and I may very well regret abandoning him if i take that course.

   SELECTION: ZAYNAR