Marc Owen Banks shares some more of his stats with us as he poses the question; Coming to the Festival, How important is a recent run?

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This is a really interesting question in the run up to the 2011 Festival at Cheltenham and something from a personal point of view I have considered. Looking at all results over the years, there is a consistent trend towards runners that had their last outing between 21 and 60 days prior to running their race at the festival and doing better than those with shorter or longer breaks. How coincidental this is, is purely a matter of opinion but the stats suggest that runners that had their last run within this time frame were 3 times more likely to be a winner than others outside.

Of course, this is just a generalised view based on all runners in every race. Each horse will act differently than others. Some need a competitive race very quickly after another, and others can act perfectly well after a lengthy time off. Quevega is a prime example of this. She won the David Nicholson Mares Only hurdle at the 2009 Festival, then contested the Irish Champion hurdle at Punchestown. We didn’t see her until she made a winning seasonal début in the same Cheltenham race last year. She stepped up in trip at Punchestown and took on the World Series Hurdle subsequently this time but again, the first time we will see her on the race track this season is in the David Nicholson where she will obviously be attempting the Hat Trick of wins, all off of a long break from competitive racing.

Runners who are appearing within ten days of a previous run here at the festival have produced just one winner since 2009, Those that have been off the track for 100 days or more have produced just 6 winners from 200 qualifiers. Its the area in the middle we need to consider and in particular as mentioned those between 21 and 60 days.

2011 could be very different though! With the sustained cold weather and mass of abandoned meetings we will be seeing more runners coming into the meeting after longer breaks than in previous years, so the stats may well be thrown out this time round and be just as effective between 60 and 99 days

We will have questions as to how fit some will be, and if indeed they will be fully wound up for their respective races. We know that connections will be training them to perfection for the day but what effect will a lack of competitive runs have on their performance on the day. Will they be one run short of full effectiveness?

An example of one who can be effective at around the 100 day mark is Nigel Twiston Davies 2010 Gold Cup winner. Imperial Commander will be trying to retain the trophy after just a single run in the Lancashire Chase at Haydock. Last season, before coming to Cheltenham, he had placed second (Arguably) behind Kauto Star in the same race before running in the King George at Kempton. He is an example of one outside the 21-60 days for whom it would not seem to matter but with the weather affecting his preparation, will he be in the same shape as the twice raced Imperial Commander of last season?

Who do you think will run well despite a long break coming in and is still worth backing and who do you think has not had enough competitive preparation and will constitute a lay?

Should Previous Course Experience be a Key Factor When Looking For Future Festival Winners?

Marc Owen Banks churns up some interesting stats for us to identify whether or not we should concentrate on Cheltenham runners with previous course form when planning our Cheltenham Betting.

I once remember a quote in racing that pretty much went along the lines of “class is class no matter what the going”. It’s not exact but this was in direct reference to what difference the underfoot conditions made to lower class/rated horses in comparison to top end thoroughbreds. The general consensus being, once the upper echelons of class are considered, the going didn’t matter as much, as a class horse, is class regardless of conditions.

The same may be true when it comes to course conditions. Whether a track is flat or undulating, whether the course is left or right handed, although I think there would be a sterner argument against that latter as there is certainly a distinct preference in most cases in my mind. So the question is – Are the general thoughts that course experience can be key, well founded in regards runners at the Festival?

I ran some figures through my software. Looking at previous festivals I filtered out every runner that had never raced at Cheltenham previously. I then did the same for those that had, and even took it a little further and looked at only those runners who had previous “Festival” form in the book.

What I found was, if last year we had backed every runner that had previously run at the Festival we would have found ourselves striking no less than 270 bets! I wasn’t expecting so many. This number has consistently increased since 2003 when just 195 were making at least a second appearance at the festival. It should be noted that a fourth day has been added since then however. In any case, if anyone was mad enough to back every one last year they would have walked away in profit to the tune of £16.77 to £1 level stakes. Not a strategy I would recommend for 2011, it is just a 6.7% Return on investment.

Cheltenham’s courses, old and new, are idiosyncratic though and must suit certain runners, so I thought including every runner who had previously run on the course was not such a good idea, as they may have run badly previously, perhaps not suited by the track. So I took only those that had run into a place previously on the track at a festival and run through again. I found 28 runners that had previously placed at a festival came back and either won or placed again last year. 10 of those were winners! 2010 was not unique in finding previously festival placed horses winning and placing once again. This is something that shows up as providing winners year in year out a well as some attractively priced places. The technique will not find you every winner, but it will find you some very interesting short-lists from which you may find some nice priced winners, 2010 included Weapons Amnesty and Pigeon Island.

This year there are a whole host of runners coming back from last year and previous festival. Try to find one in the Gold Cup that hasn’t run here before!!!

There are a number looking to retain titles as well. Imperial Commander in the Gold Cup, Binocular,  the Champion Hurdle and Quevega is looking for three on the trot in the David Nicholson Mares Only Hurdle.

Which previous festival winners and placed runners, will you be looking at, to perform well once again in 2011?

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We continue our series of posts looking at the Cheltenham Festival Betting favourites, the best bankers and the likely blow outs.  Here Marc Owen Banks shares the key stats with us and gives us his verdict on which favourites you can bank on and which you should lay.

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Everyone loves a favourite don’t they? Every punter across the land has their Banker for the week lined up, sometimes, weeks or months in advance. Who are the bankers for 2011 and how can we expect them to get on. Will the smiles be on the faces of happy punters or happier layers on the rails?

Here we take a look into past performances of the favourites over recent seasons at the festival and see if there any angles to be had in backing a shortie at arguably the most competitive National Hunt meeting of them all.

Since 2002 there have been 3970 runners take on the Prestbury Park course over the Festival week; Of those, 226 have been sent off Sp favourite, singularly, joint or Co-Favs. Of those 226 favourites, 50 have returned home first to justify the support. That is a below average 22% strike rate, and as you might imagine, if backing them all blindly there would be a hole in the pocket of the favourite backer. A 15% loss of investment equates to a £32.40 loss to every pound invested.

A quick look at each year in isolation shows us that this has not been the case every year and in fact the biggest losses have been seen only in recent seasons, 2010 would have seen a 12.17 loss as only four favourites scored in 27 races. The year the bookies made hay was 2008. Just 2 winning favourites meant a whopping loss of 75% of the bank. So perhaps this is the year when the bookies take a hiding again?

Only three years in the last ten would have seen favourite backers bank a profit. 2006 was the last time, then 2004 and in 2003 10 of the 22 races were won by favourites.

So will this year be a week for the backers or layers?

There is one angle that has proven to be a profitable one for backing the market leaders over the years. Surprisingly, it would seem the “Bankers” as they are described don’t do so badly. If following only those priced between Evens and 15/8 blindly a strike rate of 50% would have been had with 16 winners from 32 qualifiers. For a £7.67 profit or 23%ROI.

Ruby Walsh is not a bad bet when on a favourite, he has ridden 40 favourites in the time frame researched, scoring with 15of those for a 37% strike rate and £12.38 profit to level stakes would have kept many happy.

So who are this years bankers? Who do we back and who do we lay?.My thoughts in brackets

Supreme Novices Hurdle – Cue Card  (BACK)

Champion Hurdle – Binocular  (BACK)

David Nicholson Hurdle – Quevega  (LAY)

RSA – Time For Rupert  (BACK)

Champion Chase – Master Minded  (LAY)

World Hurdle – Big Bucks  (LAY)

Gold Cup – Imperial Commander  (BACK)

Foxhunters Chase – Baby Run (LAY)

I predict  four of these will win at most, and if playing  a Yankee would include

Cue Card – Binocular – Time For Rupert and Imperial Commander.