With a seemingly effortless victory in the King George Kauto Star has now won nine out of his last eleven races and is now a short price to record victory in his second Cheltenham Gold Cup.

However, all the eulogising in the newspapers and on television doesn’t sit well with me as for some reason Kauto Star doesn’t inspire the type of confidence that would make me want to part with cash on a 6/4 shot for a race like the Gold Cup.

But is that just me? Let’s look at the facts.

Kauto Star’s Record

Two Tingle Creek’s

Two King George’s

A Gold Cup

A Betfair Chase

Also, Paul Nicholls’ soon to be eight year old has 14 wins from 24 total career starts and he has amassed over a £1 million pounds in win and place prize money. Not only that but Phil Smith, the senior BHA handicapper, is considering putting Kauto Star’s rating up to 180 to match the highest rating handed out since Desert Orchid. End of argument then surely? This is a jumping machine? Well, maybe?

What Has He Beat?

I appreciate you can only beat what is put in front of you but does continually beating Exotic Dancer make you a “great” horse? In this year’s King George we had the sad injury to Taranis, the non performance of My Way De Solzen, the non stayer Racing Demon and Exotic Dancer being ridden differently in a desperate attempt to beat a horse who has had his measure four times before. This leaves the runner up, the admirable, but frankly, no world beater Our Vic. Granted it was a demolition but wouldn’t any of the recent good King George winners have managed the same sort of result given that kind of opposition?

I find it difficult to forget how Clive Smith’s pride and joy laboured giving 10lb to L’ami in last years Aon Chase (admittedly there were excuses) or, more worryingly, the way he seemed to get fed up mid race against a blatantly not 100% fit Monet’s Garden at Aintree on his reappearance.

Gold Cup Value?

Does all this make Kauto Star a 6/4 shot for the Gold Cup? Well, why not give us your thoughts?
I wouldn’t want to back a horse who has paid two visits to Cheltenham and fell once (2006 Champion Chase) and had every short price punter’s hearts in their mouths at his last fence mistake on the way to victory in the 2007 Gold Cup.

I’d like to see Kauto Star have a proper race against another truly top class three mile chaser before I start worshipping at his altar. Let’s hope Denman or something else turns up to give him a true test in March 2008. Then, perhaps, the headline writers will really earn their money.

After putting up the performance of the season so far by winning the Hennessy Gold Cup by 11 lengths, Paul Nicholls’ Denman has now displaced Kauto Star as Cheltenham Gold Cup favourite with some bookmakers.

He is now as short as 6/4 with Coral, whilst Sporting Bet, Blue Square and William Hill share best price of 9/4. Those of you who followed Friday’s advice will be sitting on a 5/1 voucher and if you haven’t laid off already you may wish to wait until after the Lexus Chase which is likely to be his next target. That race would appear to be at his mercy and another win would surely see his price for the Gold Cup shorten further.

In recent years the winners of the Hennessy have gone on to run in the Cheltenham Gold Cup as one of the more fancied records but regularly fail to make the grade.

2006 Winner State Of Play finished 6th in the Gold Cup at 8/1
2005 Winner Trabolgan missed the Gold Cup through injury
2004 Winner Celestial Gold finished 7th in the Gold Cup at 9/2
2003 Winner Strong Flow missed that season’s Gold Cup through injury but finished 6th in the following season’s at 5/1

Denman is currently a general 7/2 favourite for the Hennessy and is 5/1 second favourite for the Gold Cup. This will have to be a very good performance from Denman if he is to win on his seasonal reappearance carrying top weight in one of the most competitive handicaps of the jumps season.

It may sound odd but Denman may hold a better chance in the Cheltenham Gold Cup if he doesn’t win. Not only do Hennessy winners have a bad record but it is likely he will have to be at peak fitness to lump this weight around and win and it is unlikely he can be kept at peak fitness until March by which team he would surely be over the top.

So the best bet at this stage? Back Denman for the Cheltenham Gold Cup before the Hennessy with a view to laying off after the race at shorter odds. If Denman wins or runs well his odds should come in for the Cheltenham Gold Cup and a profit can be guaranteed. It will take a very poor performance for Denman to drift and if that happens you should get a good price about him the next time he runs when he should have improved for his seasonal reappearance.

Reaction the betting moves ofter the race will be available on Monday.

After the thrilling Betfair Chase on Saturday it seems that the main two contenders for the Cheltenham Gold Cup are last season’s first two home, Kauto Star and Exotic Dancer. Kauto Star held off a late challenge from Exotic Dancer with Beef Or Salmon way back in third.

Katuo Star is now 2/1 from 5/2 with Sporting Bet but the biggest market mover was Exotic Dancer who is 7/1 from 10/1 with Paddy Power.

The biggest threat to their dominance seems to be Denman, the current second favourite for the Gold Cup and he should be making his seasonal debut at Newbury on Saturday in the Hennessey Gold Cup. When the final declarations have been made check back for the best bets in the race and for Cheltenham with market moves in mind.

Last season’s Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Kauto Star will face six rivals as he bids to repeat last year’s Betfair Chase win at Haydock, the first leg of the Betfair Million.

Kauto Star is likely to win the race but is only around even money so isn’t really a betting proposition considering last month’s slightly lackluster reappearance. He should be all the better for that outing but if you fancy him consider backing him for either the King George at 6/4 with Sporting Bet, which takes place at Kempton on Boxing Day or for the Gold Cup at 5/2 with Sporting Bet as he still may have more improvement to come this season in terms of fitness.

My Way De Solzen is a 11/4 second favourite for the Betfair Chase with Totesport and can be backed generally at 8/1 for the Cheltenham Gold Cup. This is likely to prove the easier race of the two so consider backing him for this race rather than the Gold Cup itself.

Cheltenham Gold Cup second and third, Exotic Dancer and Turpin Green both re oppose Kauto Star but there is no reason to think they will reverse the form. The best trade of the weekend could be to back Exotic Dancer for the Gold Cup before the Betfair Chase as he is currently 10/1 for the big race with Paddy Power and William Hill and should improve greatly for his seasonal reappearance as he did last season. A good run here should see him shortened by at least a couple of points.

Last year’s Cheltenham Gold Cup winner, Kauto Star, could face My Way De Solzen and Cheltenham Gold Cup runner up Exotic Dancer in Saturday’s Betfair Chase at Haydock.

Paul Nicholls’ stable star is likely to be a warm order for the race despite the fact that regular pilot, Ruby Walsh, is on the sidelines following his injury on Saturday.

Later in the week when the full declarations have been made we will give you the best information on what to back for the race and more importantly, what to back for the Cheltenham Gold Cup with post race market moves in mind.

Current Cheltenham Gold Cup favourite Kauto Star suffered defeat on his first start of the season, his first defeat since falling in the 2006 Champion Chase. Monet’s Garden beat last year’s Gold Cup winner by 1 1/2 length but the winner was in receipt of a full 14 lbs which means Kauto Star emerges as by far the best horse in the race.

Kauto Star was expected to come on for the run but didn’t travel as smoothly as usual and had to be pushed along at half way to keep up with his rivals. It is far too early to be writing him off and it will be interesting to see how he travels in his next outing.

Kauto Star remains the favourite for the Cheltenham Gold Cup and is a stand out price of 5/2 with Sportingbet.

The winner deserves plenty of credit as the trainer suggested he would not only improve for this outing but probably the next one as well. He has already proved himself an Aintree specialist with three wins at the course and is one to consider for the Grand National Festival rather than the Cheltenham Festival.

Last year’s Cheltenham Gold Cup runner up, Exotic Dancer, completely failed to run his race finishing 20 lengths behind the favourite. He has always needed his seasonal reappearance and much better can be expected next time out. He remains very much a challenger for Kauto Star’s crown and it should be noted that Paddy Power go 10/1 about him improving on last season’s second.