Imperial Commander was due to run in the King George at Kempton following his reappearance victory in the Betfair Chase at Haydock, but suffered a setback. Reports emanating from the Twiston-Davies yard have been upbeat, though, and he goes well fresh, and loves Cheltenham – he has won five of his six starts over fences at Prestbury Park. Imperial Commander is now aged 10 and only one 10-year-old, Cool Dawn in 1998, has won the Gold Cup since ’93. Conversely, the Fleminsfirth gelding has few miles on the clock for a horse of his age.

Kauto Star became the first horse to regain the Gold Cup in 2009, and Denman, so impressive when winning the Festival showpiece in 2008, will be bidding to emulate his stablemate on March 18. Kauto Star, a top-priced 13-2 with Coral at the time of writing, will join an elite group consisting of Golden Miller, Cottage Rake, Arkle and Best Mate if he manages to register a third Gold Cup victory. However, he was well held in the King George at Kempton in January and, as an 11-year-old, he has a major age stat to overcome: no horse older than 10 has landed this prestigious chase since What A Myth prevailed as a 12-year-old in 1969.

Denman is also 11, so it could be that although he is more than double the price of his two illustrious stablemates, the year younger Neptune Collonges could emerge as champion trainer Paul Nicholls’ best chance of a winner in the 2011 Gold Cup. The grey appeared to be back to his best when landing the Argento Chase at the Gloucestershire venue in his latest start and the 33-1 widely available doesn’t look bad value at all, particularly from an each-way betting perspective.

At the other end of the age scale, Long Run, generally second favourite for the Gold Cup, also has a major stat to overcome. Indeed, no horse aged six has won this race since Mill House in 1963. Nicky Henderson’s charge was an emphatic winner of the King George when last seen out, but there are still many that question whether the French import possesses the requisite stamina for the Gold Cup’s 3m 2½f trip, especially on an undulating track like Cheltenham.

Irish raiders Kempes and Pandorama are progressive types, while Midnight Chase has gone from strength-to-strength this season. The last-named is unbeaten in four starts over fences at Cheltenham (his last three victories have all been gained at the track) and his bold jumping will be an asset. The scene is set for a fascinating Gold Cup and it will be most interesting to see whether punters decide that Imperial Commander is a banker or blowout shortly before 3.20 on the last day of the 2011 Festival.
For more information on the Gold Cup see our gold cup trends page, gold cup tips page or check out a list of the top runners in the 2011 gold cup here.

Please give us your opnion below of who will win the 2011 Gold Cup. Is Imperial Commander a banker?

The history of the race is littered with 10 year old winners, Eleven of them in fact, the first of them Easter Hero in 1930. There was no Gold Cup in 1937. If there had of been, perhaps Golden Miller could have won as a ten year old after winning the race for the previous five consecutive years aged 5 to 9.

The common take now is that we will not see a ten year old winning the race. If we look at the current Cheltenham betting, this would eliminate the chances of most of the leading lights for this years race. Last years winner Imperial Commander will be ten this time round. Twice previous winner Kauto star last won aged nine, two years ago, that makes him 11. His stable mate Denman, fancied by many to be able to match Kauto and win again in 2011, is the same age.

As much as this may open up the argument for Long Run followers, it should be remembered that Nicky Hendersons gelding is only six years old. If the record for ten year olds is bad, its nothing compared to the youngsters. The last six year old to win this race was the legendaryFulke Walkywn trained Mill House in 1963. Only two other 6yo’s have won in the history of the race, one of those of course being Golden Miller.

Coming through the betting market to find the next non 6yo or 10yo, we have to go down as far as 5th and 6th favourites, Kempes and Pandorama to find a couple of 8yos. Midnight Chase is nine, and China Rock at 50/1 is the next in line.

So the question is. How strong is age as a gold cup trend, and in 2011, how much influence will it have on your decision of selection?

Can Denman or Kauto Star become the first 11year old to win since Mandarin in 1962?

Can Imperial Commander not only retain the Gold Cup but be the first 10 year old since Cool Dawn?

Will Long Run arrive on the scene and break a near 40 year hoodoo for 6yos?

Or will the racego to a more traditional 7, 8 or 9 year old in the form of Kempes or Pandorama?

Is that how you see the blue ribbon of steeplechasing panning out this season or do you think that the Paul Nicholls’ ten year old has got his work cut out fending off the youngsters? Has his narrowest of victories over Imperial Commander on his reappearance at Haydock made you even more convinced of a Kauto Star Gold Cup treble or are you now scrambling through the ante-post market looking for a viable alternative to the Champion?

What about the other gold cup runners? Now Denman has won his second Hennessy can he regain the Gold Cup? Will Cooldine blossom from Novice champ to Gold Cup king? Will Imperial Commander see out the trip as impressively at Cheltenham as he did at Haydock?

Or is there something else lurking in the depths of the ante-post market that will spring up to become Kauto’s biggest challenger?

Let us know your gold cup tips for the Cheltenham Gold Cup 2010.

Kauto Star 

Favourite for the race and no surprise as he won the race in 2007 and finished 2nd last year despite not running anywhere near his best. He has been kept fresher this year and should give a very good account.

Neptune Collonges

Finished a short head behind Kauto Star last year but seemed to be ridden with more restraint with a place in mind. It would be no surprise if he runs well but with no win from five course runs it is difficult to see him winning one of the most competitive races of the season.

Denman

Won the race impressively last season but that seems to have left its mark on him and he did not appear the same horse on his only racecourse outing this season at Kempton. Could just as easily win the race by ten lengths as be pulled up half way round.

Madison Du Berlais

Owes his Gold Cup price to a wide margined win over Denman at Kempton but that probably shouldn’t be taken literally and although he has improved this season he has never finished in the first two in five runs at Cheltenham and suspicion is that he is better on flatter tracks.

Exotic Dancer

Has contested the last two Gold Cups, finishing second in 2007 and fifth last year (had an interrupted preparation) but has been as good as ever this season and if he is going to win a Gold Cup it has to be now. Might be best backed to place having been beaten six times already by Kauto Star.

Barbers Shop

Definitely an up and coming staying chaser who will be contesting this race for years to come but has not contested the standard of races this year that a potential Gold Cup winner should have.

Albertas Run

Has bits and pieces of form that should see him place at least, notably a running on second against Kauto Star at Kempton on Boxing Day. That would have the pair closely matched over Friday’s course and distance and with two wins from three runs at the course you would have to think he could easily run into a place, or even win!

Predicted Outcome

1. Kauto Star
2. Albertas Run
3. Exotic Dancer

In the most competitive races it often pays to take strong notice of the stats for previous winners and the Cheltenham Gold Cup is one of the most competitive races you can find. There is a reason a certain type of horse wins the race year after year, it takes that kind of horse to win the Gold Cup. In this year’s Gold Cup we can start chucking horses out based on the stats on this page Cheltenham Gold Cup Stats.

This Year’s Gold Cup Hopefuls

We can’t see each horse’s final prep run yet which will be important but we can start ruling some horses out. The main contenders at this stage are:

Denman – Yet to run this season at the time of writing. He meets the stats that he can have at this stage but the lack of run is a big worry. No horse in the last ten years has won with less than two starts that term (and the ones that raced only twice both won twice so were obviously exceptional). There is no doubt that Denman is exceptional but he would have to win the AON Chase at Newbury (which is expected to be his only run) to be anywhere near considered.

Kauto Star – Having won the King George Chase at Kempton on his previous outing is a big positive but he was beaten whilst finishing in last year’s Gold Cup which is a big negative.

Neptune Collonges – Not only beaten in last year’s Gold Cup which is a negative but has also failed to win in five runs at Cheltenham which pretty much rules him out.

Albertas Run – Just like last year’s winner Denman he won the Royal & SunAlliance the year before taking on the Gold Cup. Has also won two out of three races at Cheltenham. The negative is he has not won a race so far this season but if he wins his final prep race he will go to the Gold Cup with a massive chance.

Exotic Dancer – Won the Lexus Chase easily but has been beaten in two previous Gold Cups which is a massive negative. If he was taking in his first Gold Cup this year he would have most stats in his favour but the fact is he probably isn’t quite good enough.

Barbers Shop – One of the younger horses in the line up and four of the last five horses who were winning their first Gold Cup were seven years old. Has won this season and finished 2^nd at last years Festival which are plusses. He is one of the few in the race that can potentially pass every MUST HAVE stat come race time. He will need to run once more in the next few weeks and place in that race to do so.

Tidal Bay – Won at last year’s Festival and has a good record at Cheltenham which is good. He has won this season and is another who is likely to pass most stats if not all unless he runs again before the Festival and unplaces.

Star De Mohaison – Has a fair Cheltenham record (2 from 6) but didn’t run at last year’s Festival which is a negative. Has also yet to win a race this season so far.

So Who Do We Back?

Those at the head of the market are failing some very important stats and for most it is going to be impossible to go to the race as the stats choice for one reason or another. This is good for punters as it means we are left with value selections.

Tidal Bay is the main stats pick at this stage but he could still go for other races at the Festival. The fact he has never been out of the top two means if he does go for the Gold Cup he will be a fantastic each way bet.

Barbers Shop is another who looks very good on the stats and at a nice price can be backed each way. Albertas Run needs a win this season if he is going to warrant a bet but excuses can be made for his defeats this season and even if he doesn’t win this season before the Gold Cup he could still carry a small interest.

Check Back Soon

The final prep runs are going to tell us more about each horse and narrow things down further. It is strongly possible that in a couple of weeks there will be one big priced clear pick for the stats and that will certainly be worth a bet. An update will be made after the final preps.

Share Your Thoughts With Us

Do you fancy one of the stats no hopers such as Neptune Collonges? If so make a case for it and let us know what you think. He may be one of the favourites (at time of writing) but we think he has no chance.

If you think we are wrong to hold Cheltenham Gold Cup stats in such high regard then reply to this blog and make a case for only considering form. Are there any bigger priced horses that we haven’t considered that fit the stats perfectly? If there are then we want to know about it.

Denman

Denman has to overcome a poor record of Hennessy winners in the Gold Cup but has been massively impressive in all of his recent outings, including a win at last year’s Cheltenham Festival. His run in the Hennessy was arguably the best run of the season by any horse. Denman is 2/1 with Ladbrokes.

Kauto Star

The reigning champ, had a not so good reappearance at Aintree but has looked good since then. Still has to prove himself in a quality Gold Cup field and today is his opportunity. If leading coming up to the last there will be many hearts in mouths as he clouts the final fence in his customary style. Kauto Star is 5/4 with Ladbrokes.

The Rest

It’s a shame Kicking King didn’t make the line up as a previous Gold Cup winner would have made this very interesting. We know Exotic Dancer is just behind Kauto Star on form and I would have strongly fancied this had he not had his recent injury scares. Halcon Genelardais is interesting and appeals most to get a place.

For me this is a massive shame as I thought if anywhere near his best he could give the ‘big two’ a run for their money.

There is some good news though, the horse is not being retired and could run at Fairyhouse or Punchestown if he regathers his spark before then.

Let’s hope we see the best of Kicking King back on a racecourse before too long.

Kauto Star is obviously a class act who has beaten the best Gold Cup contenders but there is still a question mark over his jumping. When winning last year’s Cheltenham Gold Cup every one of his backers had their heart in their mouth as he just about made it over the last and he has made a similar mistake in most of his other races. Sooner or later these mistakes are going to cost him and I am betting it on being sooner rather than later.

In last year’s Gold Cup Ruby kept Kauto Star out of trouble by going around the outside of the field the whole way. It was a rough old race with a loose horse causing havoc and their were a few more hard luck stories than were reported. Had Kauto Star been near the rail then it could have been a very different outcome. Luck doesn’t always go your way and in my opinion Kauto Star has had his fair share of luck.

As for Denman, many would argue that winning the Hennessy off top weight would guarantee stamina for the Gold Cup. In a previous blog I have already brought up the shocking record of Hennessy winners in the Gold Cup so not only does Denman have to overcome that, but he also has to prove his stamina. Newbury is a very different track to Cheltenham and with four wins at the course it could be argued that Denman is a bit of a Newbury specialist.

I also have my doubts about some of the horses Denman has beat. Dream Alliance was second in the Hennessy and has failed to finish in his subsequent three races. He was unimpressive when beating ok horses in the Lexus and then he won by a large distance against nothing of note last time out at Newbury.

So if they won’t win, what will? Exotic Dancer would be very interesting back at Cheltenham but there are serious doubts about that one’s fitness and I think it is fairly obvious that if it does turn up it won’t be 100%. Kicking King is still interesting despite his poor run last time out. I think we will see the real Kicking King next Friday and don’t forget the horse is a previous Gold Cup Winner. The Cheltenham Gold Cup betting is all wrong and 33/1 is massive.

Exotic Dancer has faced Kauto Star four times with the following consequences:

Dec 06 Kempton – beaten 8 lengths
Mar 07 Cheltenham – beaten 2.5 lengths
Nov 07 Haydock – beaten 0.5 lengths
Dec 07 Kempton – beaten 12.5 lengths

From Exotic Dancer’s form it is clear to see Kempton isn’t his track, however he had been getting closer to Kauto Star with each run until December’s King George, in which new riding tactics were tested. Cheltenham and soft ground both suit Exotic Dancerwell as theyget the best out of his stamina and running style.

At this year’s Cheltenham Gold Cup I would rate Exotic Dancer a much better bet at the odds if the ground came up soft. As that would also suit Denman it might mean Kauto Star is now struggling to place. Unfortunately for Exotic Dancer backers the ground is normally firmer towards the end of the Festival and he would need a downpour on the day of the Gold Cup.

Judging by the way Exotic Dancer stayed on in the Betfair Chase at Haydock, I would also rate him a better bet in next year’s renewal, should both take their chance again.

What do you think? Will Exotic Dancer ever beat Kauto Star? Share your thoughts.

Tomorrow’s Letherby and Christopher Chase looks between Our Vic and Neptune Collonges. With both priced at 50/1 for the Cheltenham Gold Cup it seems that this can’t really be deemed a valid trial.

These are the routes to the Gold Cup the eventual winners took since 2000.

2000 – Looks Like Trouble – Pulled up in the King George, won the Pillar (now the Letherby and Christopher Chase)

2001 – Abandoned

2002 – Best Mate – Runner up in the King George

2003 – Best Mate – Won the King George

2004 – Best Mate – Won the Lexus

2005 – Kicking King – Won the King George

2006 – War Of Attrition -Runner up in the Lexus

2007 – Kauto Star -  Won the King George

Earlier in the season I highlighted the poor record of Hennessy Gold Cup winners and from the above evidence it is absolutely essential that a Gold Cup hopeful at least contests either the King George or the Lexus, without necessarily winning. If your ante post ticket contains a horse who was resting over the Christmas period, you might as well rip it up now.