The most eagerly awaited clash since Hatton versus Mayweather is here and whoever powers up the hill in the lead is going to draw a massive roar from the crowd.

Denman

Denman has to overcome a poor record of Hennessy winners in the Gold Cup but has been massively impressive in all of his recent outings, including a win at last year’s Cheltenham Festival. His run in the Hennessy was arguably the best run of the season by any horse. Denman is 2/1 with Ladbrokes.

Kauto Star

The reigning champ, had a not so good reappearance at Aintree but has looked good since then. Still has to prove himself in a quality Gold Cup field and today is his opportunity. If leading coming up to the last there will be many hearts in mouths as he clouts the final fence in his customary style. Kauto Star is 5/4 with Ladbrokes.

The Rest

It’s a shame Kicking King didn’t make the line up as a previous Gold Cup winner would have made this very interesting. We know Exotic Dancer is just behind Kauto Star on form and I would have strongly fancied this had he not had his recent injury scares. Halcon Genelardais is interesting and appeals most to get a place.

Posted in Gold Cup | No Comments »

Unfortunately Kicking King has failed to sparkle in a recent workout and trainer Tom Taaffe has said that he won’t run in the Cheltenham Gold Cup.

For me this is a massive shame as I thought if anywhere near his best he could give the ‘big two’ a run for their money.

There is some good news though, the horse is not being retired and could run at Fairyhouse or Punchestown if he regathers his spark before then.

Let’s hope we see the best of Kicking King back on a racecourse before too long.

Posted in Gold Cup | No Comments »

It is the view of many that this year’s Cheltenham Gold Cup is a two horse race. I disagree and believe it is a wide open event in which there is plenty of each way value.

Kauto Star is obviously a class act who has beaten the best Gold Cup contenders but there is still a question mark over his jumping. When winning last year’s Cheltenham Gold Cup every one of his backers had their heart in their mouth as he just about made it over the last and he has made a similar mistake in most of his other races. Sooner or later these mistakes are going to cost him and I am betting it on being sooner rather than later.

In last year’s Gold Cup Ruby kept Kauto Star out of trouble by going around the outside of the field the whole way. It was a rough old race with a loose horse causing havoc and their were a few more hard luck stories than were reported. Had Kauto Star been near the rail then it could have been a very different outcome. Luck doesn’t always go your way and in my opinion Kauto Star has had his fair share of luck.

As for Denman, many would argue that winning the Hennessy off top weight would guarantee stamina for the Gold Cup. In a previous blog I have already brought up the shocking record of Hennessy winners in the Gold Cup so not only does Denman have to overcome that, but he also has to prove his stamina. Newbury is a very different track to Cheltenham and with four wins at the course it could be argued that Denman is a bit of a Newbury specialist.

I also have my doubts about some of the horses Denman has beat. Dream Alliance was second in the Hennessy and has failed to finish in his subsequent three races. He was unimpressive when beating ok horses in the Lexus and then he won by a large distance against nothing of note last time out at Newbury.

So if they won’t win, what will? Exotic Dancer would be very interesting back at Cheltenham but there are serious doubts about that one’s fitness and I think it is fairly obvious that if it does turn up it won’t be 100%. Kicking King is still interesting despite his poor run last time out. I think we will see the real Kicking King next Friday and don’t forget the horse is a previous Gold Cup Winner. The Cheltenham Gold Cup betting is all wrong and 33/1 is massive.

Posted in Gold Cup | No Comments »

In many other time periods Exotic Dancer would have been absolutely prolific mopping up many of the top races including the King George and the Cheltenham Gold Cup.

Exotic Dancer has faced Kauto Star four times with the following consequences:

Dec 06 Kempton - beaten 8 lengths
Mar 07 Cheltenham - beaten 2.5 lengths
Nov 07 Haydock - beaten 0.5 lengths
Dec 07 Kempton - beaten 12.5 lengths

From Exotic Dancer’s form it is clear to see Kempton isn’t his track, however he had been getting closer to Kauto Star with each run until December’s King George, in which new riding tactics were tested. Cheltenham and soft ground both suit Exotic Dancerwell as theyget the best out of his stamina and running style.

At this year’s Cheltenham Gold Cup I would rate Exotic Dancer a much better bet at the odds if the ground came up soft. As that would also suit Denman it might mean Kauto Star is now struggling to place. Unfortunately for Exotic Dancer backers the ground is normally firmer towards the end of the Festival and he would need a downpour on the day of the Gold Cup.

Judging by the way Exotic Dancer stayed on in the Betfair Chase at Haydock, I would also rate him a better bet in next year’s renewal, should both take their chance again.

What do you think? Will Exotic Dancer ever beat Kauto Star? Share your thoughts.

Posted in Gold Cup | 1 Comment »

With Cheltenham’s January meeting just about to take place it seemed a good idea to examine what chances the meeting has of producing a Gold Cup winner and where the Gold Cup winner usually comes from.

Tomorrow’s Letherby and Christopher Chase looks between Our Vic and Neptune Collonges. With both priced at 50/1 for the Cheltenham Gold Cup it seems that this can’t really be deemed a valid trial.

These are the routes to the Gold Cup the eventual winners took since 2000.

2000 - Looks Like Trouble - Pulled up in the King George, won the Pillar (now the Letherby and Christopher Chase)

2001 - Abandoned

2002 - Best Mate - Runner up in the King George

2003 - Best Mate - Won the King George

2004 - Best Mate - Won the Lexus

2005 - Kicking King - Won the King George

2006 - War Of Attrition -Runner up in the Lexus

2007 - Kauto Star -  Won the King George

Earlier in the season I highlighted the poor record of Hennessy Gold Cup winners and from the above evidence it is absolutely essential that a Gold Cup hopeful at least contests either the King George or the Lexus, without necessarily winning. If your ante post ticket contains a horse who was resting over the Christmas period, you might as well rip it up now.

Posted in Gold Cup | No Comments »

Two years ago one of the leading contenders  for the 2006 Cheltenham Gold Cup was ruled out. That horse has  not seen a racecourse since.

After winning the 2005 Cheltenham Gold Cup in impressive fashion having been ruled out of the race just weeks before, he was supposed to take over the Gold Cup mantle from the aging Best Mate. It’s a shame that he did not get to defend his crown the following year as he was a star in the making.

However, it seems that the talented Kicking King could be back sooner rather than later. He is set to run in the Normans Grove Chase at Fairyhouse, now scheduled for Wednesday after waterlogging claimed the race on Sunday. Even if he is back to his best he will surely come on for the run but it will be very interesting to see how he gets on.

His best form might leave him behind Kauto Star but we all know he is going to hit the deck soon enough in one of these top races. Kicking King is a 33/1 shot in this year’s Gold Cup and that has to be worth an each way bet, if only for old times sake.

Posted in Gold Cup | No Comments »

Denman’s performance in the Lexus Chase at Leopardstown didn’t satisfy people in the same way that his stablemate Kauto Star had done a few days before at Kempton but for me it was the performance that decided where my money is going in the Gold Cup.

Kauto Star may have the star quality but the question marks regarding his jumping at Cheltenham remain in my mind but with Denman this area looks rock solid.

Denman’s attacking style of running has been a joy to watch in his last three runs and this front running style will test Kauto Star’s jumping and stamina in a way it has never been tested before.

I can’t wait for the Gold Cup and only wish I was on at a bigger price!

Posted in Gold Cup | No Comments »

With a seemingly effortless victory in the King George Kauto Star has now won nine out of his last eleven races and is now a short price to record victory in his second Cheltenham Gold Cup.

However, all the eulogising in the newspapers and on television doesn’t sit well with me as for some reason Kauto Star doesn’t inspire the type of confidence that would make me want to part with cash on a 6/4 shot for a race like the Gold Cup.

But is that just me? Let’s look at the facts.

Kauto Star’s Record

Two Tingle Creek’s

Two King George’s

A Gold Cup

A Betfair Chase

Also, Paul Nicholls’ soon to be eight year old has 14 wins from 24 total career starts and he has amassed over a £1 million pounds in win and place prize money. Not only that but Phil Smith, the senior BHA handicapper, is considering putting Kauto Star’s rating up to 180 to match the highest rating handed out since Desert Orchid. End of argument then surely? This is a jumping machine? Well, maybe?

What Has He Beat?

I appreciate you can only beat what is put in front of you but does continually beating Exotic Dancer make you a “great” horse? In this year’s King George we had the sad injury to Taranis, the non performance of My Way De Solzen, the non stayer Racing Demon and Exotic Dancer being ridden differently in a desperate attempt to beat a horse who has had his measure four times before. This leaves the runner up, the admirable, but frankly, no world beater Our Vic. Granted it was a demolition but wouldn’t any of the recent good King George winners have managed the same sort of result given that kind of opposition?

I find it difficult to forget how Clive Smith’s pride and joy laboured giving 10lb to L’ami in last years Aon Chase (admittedly there were excuses) or, more worryingly, the way he seemed to get fed up mid race against a blatantly not 100% fit Monet’s Garden at Aintree on his reappearance.

Gold Cup Value?

Does all this make Kauto Star a 6/4 shot for the Gold Cup? Well, why not give us your thoughts?
I wouldn’t want to back a horse who has paid two visits to Cheltenham and fell once (2006 Champion Chase) and had every short price punter’s hearts in their mouths at his last fence mistake on the way to victory in the 2007 Gold Cup.

I’d like to see Kauto Star have a proper race against another truly top class three mile chaser before I start worshipping at his altar. Let’s hope Denman or something else turns up to give him a true test in March 2008. Then, perhaps, the headline writers will really earn their money.

Posted in Gold Cup | No Comments »

After putting up the performance of the season so far by winning the Hennessy Gold Cup by 11 lengths, Paul Nicholls’ Denman has now displaced Kauto Star as Cheltenham Gold Cup favourite with some bookmakers.

He is now as short as 6/4 with Coral, whilst Sporting Bet, Blue Square and William Hill share best price of 9/4. Those of you who followed Friday’s advice will be sitting on a 5/1 voucher and if you haven’t laid off already you may wish to wait until after the Lexus Chase which is likely to be his next target. That race would appear to be at his mercy and another win would surely see his price for the Gold Cup shorten further.

Posted in Gold Cup | No Comments »

In recent years the winners of the Hennessy have gone on to run in the Cheltenham Gold Cup as one of the more fancied records but regularly fail to make the grade.

2006 Winner State Of Play finished 6th in the Gold Cup at 8/1
2005 Winner Trabolgan missed the Gold Cup through injury
2004 Winner Celestial Gold finished 7th in the Gold Cup at 9/2
2003 Winner Strong Flow missed that season’s Gold Cup through injury but finished 6th in the following season’s at 5/1

Denman is currently a general 7/2 favourite for the Hennessy and is 5/1 second favourite for the Gold Cup. This will have to be a very good performance from Denman if he is to win on his seasonal reappearance carrying top weight in one of the most competitive handicaps of the jumps season.

It may sound odd but Denman may hold a better chance in the Cheltenham Gold Cup if he doesn’t win. Not only do Hennessy winners have a bad record but it is likely he will have to be at peak fitness to lump this weight around and win and it is unlikely he can be kept at peak fitness until March by which team he would surely be over the top.

So the best bet at this stage? Back Denman for the Cheltenham Gold Cup before the Hennessy with a view to laying off after the race at shorter odds. If Denman wins or runs well his odds should come in for the Cheltenham Gold Cup and a profit can be guaranteed. It will take a very poor performance for Denman to drift and if that happens you should get a good price about him the next time he runs when he should have improved for his seasonal reappearance.

Reaction the betting moves ofter the race will be available on Monday.

Posted in Gold Cup | No Comments »