Why Take Note Of Stats?

In the most competitive races it often pays to take strong notice of the stats for previous winners. There is a reason a certain type of horse wins a race year after year, it takes that kind of horse to win the race. In this year’s Champion Chase we can start chucking horses out based on the stats on this page Champion Chase Stats.

This Year’s Champion Chase Hopefuls

We can’t see each horse’s final prep run yet which will be important but we can start ruling some horses out. The main contenders at this stage are:

Master Minded – Looks by far the most likely winner. If he wins the Game Spirit Chase at Newbury like last season he will meet every single criteria.

Big Zeb – Not much to go on yet as didn’t run at last year’s Festival and hasn’t run at Cheltenham. At the time of writing he has had just one start this year and won it so if he races just once more before the Festival (more than one is very unlikely) he will fail the number of runs stat and if he doesn’t run he again he will fail the days between final prep race and the Festival stat.

Petit Robin – Has run at Cheltenham but not won there so that rules it out.

Voy Por Ustedes – Needs to win this season and likely to go for the Ryan Air Chase (where it should win) but passed over for this.

Tidal Bay – Won the Arkle Chase last year and has a good record at Cheltenham in his favour but he could go for either the Ryan Air Chase or the Gold Cup so hold your bets at this stage.

Well Chief – Fits the not having run at last year’s Festival and having won at Cheltenham stat but has not run since April 2007 so would need to run once and win before the Festival to be considered stats wise.

Twist Magic – Two poor runs at Cheltenham and running poorly at the previous year’s Festival make Twist Magic a horse to avoid. Hasn’t won yet this season either.

Takeroc – Would fit a number of stats if winning in the next few weeks but needs to do exactly that to be considered.

So Who Do We Back?

No prizes for originality but short priced favourite Master Minded is the stats choice by a mile. With the short price you may decide that a punt on a very large winning distance is the best value (10 lengths looks probable, 15 lengths is likely and more than 20 should even be considered).

There is also money to be made in who will finish second to Master Minded. There is a without Master Minded market and of course you can always place forecasts on the Champion Chase. Voy Por Ustedes and Tidal Bay are both likely to be running in other Festival races but would appeal if participating and Well Chief could give it a go if running in and winning a prep run soon.

If those three fail to make it then Big Zeb or at a much bigger price Takeroc should be given a chance to finish second.

Check Back Soon

Master Minded looks an easy winner at the moment but at the price it could be best to wait until closer to the race before getting involved. After the prep races we will be able to rule a few more horses in or out so that we can then decide what will come second. I will revisit this blog once all the preps are out of the way.

Share Your Thoughts With Us

Do you fancy one of the stats no hopers such as Petit Robin? If so make a case for it and let us know what you think. He may be one of the favourites (at time of writing) but we think he has no chance.

If you think we are wrong to hold stats in such high regard then reply to this blog and make a case for only considering form. Are there any bigger priced horses that we haven’t considered that fit the stats perfectly? If there are then we want to know about it.

This Year’s Champion Hurdle Hopefuls

We can’t see each horse’s final prep run yet which will be important but we can start ruling some horses out. The main contenders at this stage are:

Binocular – Ticks several boxes but fails others. If he wins his final start then he is obviously a contender but at the price now, it may be better to look elsewhere for value.

Sublimity - Serious question marks as is 9 years old and has poorer than 50% Cheltenham win record.

Crack Away Jack – Won at last year’s Festival and has 100% Cheltenham win record but is only five years old.

Celestial Halo – Won at last year’s Festival and has 100% Cheltenham win record but is only five years old.

Katchit – Won at last year’s Festival and has more than 50% Cheltenham win record (one defeat in six)

Osana - Serious question marks as has poorer than 50% Cheltenham win record.

Punjabi - Serious question marks as has poorer than 50% Cheltenham win record.

Sizing Europe – Overlooked as ran poorly at last year’s Festival

Snap Tie – Serious question marks as has poorer than 50% Cheltenham win record.

Jered – Overlooked as did not run at last year’s Festival and has never run at Cheltenham.

Hurricane Fly – Overlooked as did not run at last year’s Festival and has never run at Cheltenham.

Harchibald – Overlooked as ran poorly at last year’s Festival

So Who Do We Back?

Celestial Halo and Crack Away Jack have already been well beaten by the current Champion Hurdle favourite Binocular but there is always a chance form will be turned around, as it often is, at Cheltenham. Both Celestial Halo and Crack Away Jack have a 100% record at Cheltenham. Once the trio have had their final runs we can rule out any of them that don’t win that run.

Katchit would look a great bet on stats but has been very much out of form this season. If he gets back to his old ways and wins his final prep race that would put him bang in there with a fantastic chance. A win for Katchit and defeat for the three five year olds in their final prep runs would make Katchit look an amazing bet according to the stats.

Check Back Soon

With the final prep runs still to be had for many of the top contenders it may be best to hold your bets until they have been run. I will revisit this blog once all the preps are out of the way.

Share Your Thoughts With Us

Do you fancy one of the stats no hopers such as Sublimity? If so make a case for it and let us know what you think. He may be a previous winner and second favourite (at time of writing) but we think he has no chance.

If you think we are wrong to hold these key looking stats in such high regard then reply to this blog and make a case for only considering form. Are there any bigger priced horses that we haven’t considered that fit the stats perfectly? If there are then we want to know about it.

The 2008 Cheltenham Festival will be remembered for reverting back to a 3 day meeting after weather scuppered the Wednesday card and also as the Festival where stats enthusiasts had a nightmare.

The Champion Races

Five year olds won both the Champion Hurdle and Champion Chase and what a performance by Master Minded. Wherever he goes next year he is going to be an absolute machine. Inglis Drever also defied the statisticians by winning his third World Hurdle as a 9 year old and in the Gold Cup, the machine that is Denman overcame the poor recent record of Hennessy winners. Harry Findlay, part owner of Denman has nominated the 2009 Grand National as an option for Denman and what a site it would be to see Denman race over Aintree’s famous fences.

The Bankers

Just two favourites won at the 2008 Cheltenham Festival. Out of eleven favourites that started 3/1 or less just one of them was victorious and that was Inglis Drever who won the World Hurdle at 11/8. Beaten short price favourites include Noland in the Arkle (7/4), Sizing Europe in the Champion Hurdle (2/1), Ashkazar in the Fred Winter (15/8), Franchoek in the Triumph (Evs) and the shortest price at this year’s Festival, Kauto Star in the Gold Cup (10/11).

What Now?

The remaining highlights for jumps enthusiasts are the Irish, Scottish and Aintree Grand Nationals and the Sandown Gold Cup, all big field handicaps run over marathon trips. For more information on the Aintree Grand National you should check out Grand National Guide Blog which is updated regularly and for further help picking the winner of the big race visit Grand National Guide, a great site woth loads of information about the Grand National Runners, Grand National Odds, Grand National Betting, Grand National Free Bets and a brilliant winner prediction tool.

The Cheltenham Blog will now concentrate on the 2009 Cheltenham Festival and will give you all the news and views as they happen.

On Tuesday the Arkle was won in impressive fashion by Tidal Bay and he was followed home by Kruguyrova.

This afternoon in the Jewson Novices Handicap Chase (1.40) Mr Strachan runs off 10-11 and is half way down the weights. This is despite the fact that he has beaten Kruguyrova by 2 1/2 lengths this season and also been beat by just 4 lengths by Tidal Bay (Mr Strachan received 6lbs from the winner). Those two runs would put him as the second best horse in the Arkle.

More form pointers  come from Mr Strachan’s chasing debut where he finished second to L’Antartique who is one of the favourites for today’s Ryan Air Chase.

Despite all this Mr Strachan is generally available at 8/1 this morning. This afternoon we could all be kicking ourselves for not having our biggest bet of the Festival on this very well handicapped horse.

All the bookmakers will be competing for your cash this week which means there are plenty of incentives to bet with each bookmaker. Here is a list of the best bookmaker offers for this week.

Paddy Power

Possibly the best bookmaker to bet with during the Festival. They are refunding singles and win parts of each way bets if your horse is beaten by the sp favourite. This offer is not quite as fantastic as it seems as there aren’t a massie amount of winning favourites at the Festival but in races you have narrowed down to the favourite and another it is a great safety net and is also worthwhile when you are opposing short priced hot favourites. Noland springs to mind today.

Blue Square

They are offering a free £5 bet to existing customers today. All you need to do is click on my account and enter the free bet code ‘tues5′. Then place your free bet!

VC Bet

If you back a faller VC will give you a free bet to the same stake on the following day’s racing. If backing a dodgy jumper, do it with VC!

Boylesports

If Kauto Star wins the Gold Cup and Denman finishes runner up they will refund all singles on runners up on every other Festival race!

Bet365

Bet365 have been running their Channel 4/1 for a long time now and it has been a great success. On any of the Channel 4 televised races if you back a winner at 4/1 or more you get a free bet of the same stake (up to £50) on the next Channel 4 race.

In order to keep up to date with all of the bookmaker’s offers it is worth bookmarking this site – OLBG bookie promotions

I think it is safe to say most of us are going to be betting on many races this week during the Cheltenham Festival. You should also remember that there are other ways to make money from your Cheltenham knowledge that don’t necessarily require you risking money in the traditional way, or risking any money at all.

Select A Cheltenham Stable

Each year for the major events the Racing Post run their select a stable competition. This involves picking ten horses from the Festival, two of which you will nominate as bankers. The bankers will score double points. Points are scored on how well your horse finishes and what sort of sp it finishes at if it wins.

The competition can be found here Select A Stable and costs £5 to enter. There is £32, 500 up for grabs in prizes.

It is also fun to play this competition amongst work/university friends. You each pick a stable under the rules and put a nominated amount into a kitty. The best stable at the end of the Festival takes the prize pool.

OLBG Tipster Competition

There is a free tipster competition run at OLBG.co.uk that offers a number of cash prizes for various sports. All you have to do is register with the site (for free) and submit your tips whenever you see fit. OLBG run a special Cheltenham Tipster Comp over Cheltenham with £1, 000 up for grabs.

EBA Chief Of Cheltenham

Expert Betting Advice are running a tipster competition over the Cheltenham Festival with a trophy and cash going to the winner, a cash prize going to the runner up and a cash prize going to the biggest priced winner. All you have to do is pick three horses each day.

OHR Cheltenham Tipping Comp

A tip must be submitted for each race and a small prize will be awarded to the winner. This competition is more for a bit of fun and interest in each race than anything else. Click here for more details – OHR Cheltenham Festival Tipping Comp.

The overnight storms in the UK have received plenty of publicity but how will they actually affect the going for the 2008 Cheltenham Festival?

The Rain

There were varying reports of how much rain would fall but the actual amount given by the clerk of the course is 10mm. There should be another 3-4mm today and 2mm overnight.

The Wind

Wind has a drying effect on the ground so plenty more rain would be required for the 10mm so far to have full effect. If the wind continues all week then expect very dry ground by the end of the week.

The Official Going

The ground on the old course is good, good to soft in places. The ground on the new course is good to soft, good in places and the ground on the cross country course has been left as good.

The Week Ahead

So we are going to start the Festival off with good to soft ground and it should dry throughout the week. By Thursday it should definitely be riding good and it might even be verging on good to firm by Friday unless there is more rain throughout the week. Hopefully there will be enough showers to stop the clerk of the course finding it necessary to turn on the taps.

What Horses To Back

Back horses who have won at least on good to soft at the start of the week and keep an eye out for good ground horses by Friday. Horses that have only ever won in the mud are highly unlikely to be suited.

Don’t underestimate the stats this Cheltenham Festival. They might not be the be all and end all of every punter’s betting strategy but it is worth considering at least some of them. Last year many people were keen to point out that 5 year olds struggle in the Champion Hurdle. This didn’t stop Detroit City going off 6/4 favourite, only to be beaten by almost 20 lengths.

So, what stats should we look out for and who should we oppose this year on that basis?

The handicaps (especially the chases) are very stat friendly races. Generally put a line through anything carrying more than 11 stone and favour horses that are 7, 8 or 9.

In the Champion Chase it is normally best to stick to horses in the top three of the market. The favourite, Master Minded, has to overcome the poor record of 5 year olds (not won in over ten years). Eighteen of the last twenty three Champion Chase winners had placed at the Festival before. Master Minded has never run at the Festival, Twist Magic has only fallen on his only Festival run whereas current champ, Voy Por Ustedes, has won in two from two runs at the Festival.

Another race with strong trends is the opening race of the Festival, the Supreme Novices Hurdle. Thirty of the last thirty five winners won last time out and thirty of the last thirty three winners were five or six. That should rule out plenty of runners, even some at the head of the market.

Stats and trends shouldn’t completely put you off something you fancy but they are trends for a reason and more often than not they will prove correct. At the very least you should be considering them in every race you are betting on, if not following them.

There are plenty of stats, trends and advice on http://www.cheltenham-betting.co.uk/. This site will provide you with everything you need to know about the Cheltenham Festival and Cheltenham Festival Betting so make sure you add it to your favourites.

With the Gold Cup stealing much of the limelight for this year’s Cheltenham Festival there has not been much focus on the Champion Chase. I usually enjoy this race more than any other with the speediest and best chasers going at it round Prestbury Park.

Many people will be thinking that Paul Nicholls has this race in the bag as he saddles both Twist Magic and Master Minded.

Master Minded

Master Minded is the current Champion Chase favourite at 5/2 with Paddy Power but has had just three runs in Britain. He unseated on his debut at Exeter but beat Hasty Prince in a handicap by three and a half lengths giving the runner up 6lbs. Nothing to suggest a Champion Chase winner so far.

In the Grade 2 Game Spirit Chase at Newbury he beat Voy Por Ustedes by 5 lengths in receipt of 6lbs. It should be noted in this race Master Minded made the running after the horses stood still for a while waiting for something to take up the lead. This gave the horse the run of the race and the bare form doesn’t tell the whole story.

To be favourite for the Champion Chase after these three runs is absurd. The horse has never run at Cheltenham and the form of his only run in Graded company is highly suspect.

Twist Magic

The second favourite is another Paul Nicholls trained horse, Twist Magic who is best priced at 3/1. He is a speedy horse who beat Voy Por Ustedes by 3 lengths in the Tingle Creek at Sandown. This race wasn’t run at a gruelling pace and this seemed to suit Twist Magic. His most recent run was a poor one being beat by 12 lengths by Tamarinble. Tamarinbleu made it a strong test which exposed Twist Magic’s apparent lack of stamina and he seems a bit of a bridle horse to me and I wouldn’t fancy him in a strongly run Champion Chase. Don’t forget he also fell at the Festival last season.

Voy Por Ustedes

This leaves Voy Por Ustedes of those at the head of the market. One win and three seconds shows he is consistent if nothing else this season. He has been beaten by both Twist Magic and Master Minded this season but in a truely run race round Cheltenham I am very confident he will come out on top. In three runs at Cheltenham, he has won twice and gone down by a neck giving lumps of weight to the winner. He has won on both trips to the Festival. In nineteen runs in this country he has only ever been unplaced once when completing and it is worth noting both his Festival wins have come when he has been underestimated. He didn’t go off favourite in either race.

It seems the bookies have underestimated Voy Por Ustedes one more time and at 7/2 he is a fantastic bet and a solid choice. Probably the biggest place banker there has ever been.

For more information about the Champion Chase click here – Champion Chase Form

For expert views on the Champion Chase and other Cheltenham Festival races download the Cheltenham Festival Podcast

Tom Segal, aka Racing Post’s Pricewise can be the punter’s best friend at times, scoring some great bets at great prices. His winning streak in the summer of 2005 has been well documented but it seems you only hear about his tips when he wins.

In recent years his tips seem to have gone downhill as has the amount of big price tips he has given. These days it seems he tips a 4/1 near the head of the market each week. Add to that the near impossibility of getting on at the advised prices and this column is becoming less influential every week.

With the Cheltenham Festival just a week away he is bound to have his followers and his selections will be massively overbet as usual. Although the Racing Post can show he has made a profit at the recommended prices, the same bets at SP would have made a loss. One advised tactic is to lay the Pricewise selections just before the race at a much shorter price than they were in the morning.

Another tactic, the best one, is to make your own mind up. Bet on what you fancy and you are much more likely to show a profit in the long term if you are betting because YOU fancy something. If you are not the greatest horse racing punter in the world then it is often better to bet to smaller stakes.

If you are looking for good tips then don’t follow Pricewise or over overhyped tipsters. At www.olbg.co.uk you can see the record of large numbers of tipsters and how they fare on different sports. There are many tipsters showing a profit and you can also see who is tipping what in each race. A useful tool for any horse racing punter.