Day one of the Cheltenham Festival 2009 is upon us and as usual there are going to be plenty of contrasting Cheltenham tips floating around. The best approach may be to back solid each way shots that should place at the very least.

Supreme Novices’ Hurdle

Cousin Vinny is the hot favourite but his trainer reported he has not eaten up since traveling over from Ireland and that he expected to be a lot more confident. Torpichen is unbeaten in two starts over hurdles and will appreciate every drop of rain that falls tonight having been a heavy ground winner on the flat. He looks an each way bet to nothing and if you back him at Paddy Power you will get your stake back if Cousin Vinny wins the race.

Arkle Chase

Those at the head of the market look plenty short enough, take a chance on Forpadydeplasterer. He has not been out of the first two over fences this season and is more likely than any of the other favourites to run his race.

William Hill Trophy 

A very competitive handicap that could go to Nenuphar Collonges. He has two wins and a second from three runs at Cheltenham and fits the profile of recent winners. Any more rain won’t be a problem and Paddy Power are offering 5 places for each way punters.

Champion Hurdle

Usually one of the most exciting races of the entire Festival has a red hot favourite in the shape of Binocular. He will be very hard to beat but won’t make you rich so take a chance on Celestial Halo. He has twice finished behind Binocular but conditions will be more in favour of Celestial Halo than Binocular so at the very least you would expect the gap to be closed, if not bridged.

Cross Country Chase

Edna Bolger looks sure to win this race but it is not quite so simple picking the winner as she has the two favourites, L’Ami and Garde Champetre. A forecast in that order should pay around 10/1 and looks a pretty decent bet.

David Nicholson Mares’ Hurdle

The two favourites look solid enough but Chomba Womba may have the most pace over this trip and having finished third in the race last year is a solid each way selection. Bet365 are paying four places in the race.

Cheltenham Tipster Competitions make betting at the Cheltenham Festival that little bit easier. Finding the winners doesn’t get any easier but they offer the chance to win something for nothing and give you an interest in every race without the need to bet on every race.

Cheltenham Festival Tipping Competitions

There are plenty of Free Cheltenham Tipping Competitions out there. The best are listed below:

Free Cheltenham Tipping Competition – £1000 up for grabs

Cheltenham Tipping Challenge – Make three tips a day

Cheltenham Festival Tips

If you need help picking your Cheltenham Festival Tips then there are plenty of web resources out there to help proved profitable tips:

Cheltenham Festival Tips – The best tips from the Cheltenham Festival

Cheltenham Festival Stats – All the stats to point you in the direction of the winner of each race

Cheltenham Tips – Discussion on one of the busiest horse racing forums on the net

Where To Place Cheltenham Bets

Once you have decided which Cheltenham Tips you want to use for a Free Cheltenham Tipping Competition and which ones you want to make your Cheltenham Festival Bets you will need to find the Best Cheltenham Odds. That can be done with the following resource:

Best Cheltenham Odds – Valuechecker points you towards value bets and compares the best prices

The Cheltenham Festival is now just a week away and punters are now scrambling to get their last minute Cheltenham Festival Tips together. Many will have been punting on the 2009 Cheltenham Festival from as far back as last March whilst others will not have placed even one or two Cheltenham Festival Bets so far.

Most Popular Races

The Cheltenham Festival Odds have changed plenty over the past few months but that doesn’t mean there are not plenty of good Cheltenham Tips out there. The four most popular races to bet on should be the Champion Hurdle, the Champion Chase, the World Hurdle and the Cheltenham Gold Cup.

The Four Championship Races – Tips

Cheltenham Gold Cup

Denman was favourite in the Gold Cup Odds at the start of the season but one lacklustre run this season has seen him drift out to third favouritism. The favourite in the Cheltenham Gold Cup Betting is now the 2007 winner, Kauto Star.

Champion Hurdle

In the Champion Hurdle most punters are tipping Binocular, the red hot favourite, but his Cheltenham Festival Odds are now very short and a better bet could be Celestial Halo each way.

Master Minded

Master Minded is looking pretty unbeatable in the Champion Chase but he is the shortest price favourite at the Festival and is surely best backed in a double or treble with one of the other Festival ‘bankers’.

World Hurdle

The World Hurdle also has a short priced favourite in the form of Kasbah Bliss but many are unconvinced because the horse has not won in four runs at Cheltenham. Punchestowns, Big Bucks and Fair Along are the horses that people are opposing Kasbah Bliss with.

Share Your Thoughts

Let us know your thoughts about the best tips for Cheltenham, whatever they may be. Is Master Minded the dead cert everyone reckons? Will Binocular and Kasbah Bliss prove themselves up the Cheltenham hill with their first wins at the course?

Why Take Note Of Stats?

In the most competitive races it often pays to take strong notice of the stats for previous winners. There is a reason a certain type of horse wins a race year after year and the World Hurdle is no exception. In this year’s World Hurdle we can start chucking horses out based on the stats on this page World Hurdle Stats.

This Year’s World Hurdle Hopefuls

We can’t see each horse’s final prep run yet which will be important but we can start ruling some horses out. The main contenders at this stage are:

Punchestowns – One of the few runners in this year’s event to fit the MUST HAVE stat for either not running in the previous year’s Festival or running in the World Hurdle or Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. He has won at Cheltenham, won both his starts this year and is likely to go to the Festival with three races on his back this season, winning at least half his starts.

Kasbah Bliss – Came second in last year’s World Hurdle which can be determined as a positive but has not run over jumps this season and has never won at Cheltenham in four starts which means he is probably playing for a minor role again if participating.

Blazing Bailey – Ran in last year’s World Hurdle but only came fourth which is a big negative. He has also not yet won over hurdles this season so has to be overlooked.

Big Bucks – Would be an unusual winner of the World Hurdle having taken in the Jewson Novices Handicap Chase at last year’s Festival. That is a negative in itself and finishing outside of the top two in that race is another negative. Has at least won a race this season and won at Cheltenham.

Fair Along – Fails the vital stat of having run in either the World Hurdle or Supreme Novices’ Hurdle if running at the previous year’s Festival. He has won this season and has a decent enough Cheltenham record (4 from 11) but is overlooked because of his Champion Chase run last year.

Mobaasher – Another who ran in the ‘wrong’ race last year, the Pertemps Final Handicap Hurdle and has also not won yet this season in three attempts.

Duc De Regniere – Didn’t run at last year’s Festival but has failed to win in two attempts at Cheltenham which is somewhat a negative. Has won this season and another decent run before the World Hurdle would give him some chance at a big price.

So Who Do We Back?

Punchestowns looks a great bet for stats followers and even though he is favourite he still looks a good bet in a year that very few rivals meet anywhere near enough of the stats to be considered. Should win.

Several of the fancied horses such as Kasbah Bliss and Big Bucks will probably run well but don’t look half as solid as the favourite and one at a big price that could go well is Duc De Regniere who may fit some of the best stats depending on his next run.

Check Back Soon

I will revisit this after the final prep runs but it does look as though Punchestowns is an outstanding bet in this race and could be one of the bankers of the meeting. That is unlikely to change between now and the time this blog is updated but one or two other contenders might emerge between now and then based on the stats.

Share Your Thoughts With Us

Do you fancy one of the stats no hopers such as Blazing Bailey? If so make a case for it and let us know what you think. He may be one of the favourites (at time of writing) but we think he has no chance.

If you think we are wrong to hold stats for the World Hurdle in such high regard then reply to this blog and make a case for only considering form. Are there any bigger priced horses that are due to run in the World Hurdle that we haven’t considered that fit the stats perfectly? If there are then we want to know about it.

Why Take Note Of Stats?

In the most competitive races it often pays to take strong notice of the stats for previous winners. There is a reason a certain type of horse wins a race year after year, it takes that kind of horse to win the race. In this year’s Champion Chase we can start chucking horses out based on the stats on this page Champion Chase Stats.

This Year’s Champion Chase Hopefuls

We can’t see each horse’s final prep run yet which will be important but we can start ruling some horses out. The main contenders at this stage are:

Master Minded – Looks by far the most likely winner. If he wins the Game Spirit Chase at Newbury like last season he will meet every single criteria.

Big Zeb – Not much to go on yet as didn’t run at last year’s Festival and hasn’t run at Cheltenham. At the time of writing he has had just one start this year and won it so if he races just once more before the Festival (more than one is very unlikely) he will fail the number of runs stat and if he doesn’t run he again he will fail the days between final prep race and the Festival stat.

Petit Robin – Has run at Cheltenham but not won there so that rules it out.

Voy Por Ustedes – Needs to win this season and likely to go for the Ryan Air Chase (where it should win) but passed over for this.

Tidal Bay – Won the Arkle Chase last year and has a good record at Cheltenham in his favour but he could go for either the Ryan Air Chase or the Gold Cup so hold your bets at this stage.

Well Chief – Fits the not having run at last year’s Festival and having won at Cheltenham stat but has not run since April 2007 so would need to run once and win before the Festival to be considered stats wise.

Twist Magic – Two poor runs at Cheltenham and running poorly at the previous year’s Festival make Twist Magic a horse to avoid. Hasn’t won yet this season either.

Takeroc – Would fit a number of stats if winning in the next few weeks but needs to do exactly that to be considered.

So Who Do We Back?

No prizes for originality but short priced favourite Master Minded is the stats choice by a mile. With the short price you may decide that a punt on a very large winning distance is the best value (10 lengths looks probable, 15 lengths is likely and more than 20 should even be considered).

There is also money to be made in who will finish second to Master Minded. There is a without Master Minded market and of course you can always place forecasts on the Champion Chase. Voy Por Ustedes and Tidal Bay are both likely to be running in other Festival races but would appeal if participating and Well Chief could give it a go if running in and winning a prep run soon.

If those three fail to make it then Big Zeb or at a much bigger price Takeroc should be given a chance to finish second.

Check Back Soon

Master Minded looks an easy winner at the moment but at the price it could be best to wait until closer to the race before getting involved. After the prep races we will be able to rule a few more horses in or out so that we can then decide what will come second. I will revisit this blog once all the preps are out of the way.

Share Your Thoughts With Us

Do you fancy one of the stats no hopers such as Petit Robin? If so make a case for it and let us know what you think. He may be one of the favourites (at time of writing) but we think he has no chance.

If you think we are wrong to hold stats in such high regard then reply to this blog and make a case for only considering form. Are there any bigger priced horses that we haven’t considered that fit the stats perfectly? If there are then we want to know about it.

This Year’s Champion Hurdle Hopefuls

We can’t see each horse’s final prep run yet which will be important but we can start ruling some horses out. The main contenders at this stage are:

Binocular – Ticks several boxes but fails others. If he wins his final start then he is obviously a contender but at the price now, it may be better to look elsewhere for value.

Sublimity - Serious question marks as is 9 years old and has poorer than 50% Cheltenham win record.

Crack Away Jack – Won at last year’s Festival and has 100% Cheltenham win record but is only five years old.

Celestial Halo – Won at last year’s Festival and has 100% Cheltenham win record but is only five years old.

Katchit – Won at last year’s Festival and has more than 50% Cheltenham win record (one defeat in six)

Osana - Serious question marks as has poorer than 50% Cheltenham win record.

Punjabi - Serious question marks as has poorer than 50% Cheltenham win record.

Sizing Europe – Overlooked as ran poorly at last year’s Festival

Snap Tie – Serious question marks as has poorer than 50% Cheltenham win record.

Jered – Overlooked as did not run at last year’s Festival and has never run at Cheltenham.

Hurricane Fly – Overlooked as did not run at last year’s Festival and has never run at Cheltenham.

Harchibald – Overlooked as ran poorly at last year’s Festival

So Who Do We Back?

Celestial Halo and Crack Away Jack have already been well beaten by the current Champion Hurdle favourite Binocular but there is always a chance form will be turned around, as it often is, at Cheltenham. Both Celestial Halo and Crack Away Jack have a 100% record at Cheltenham. Once the trio have had their final runs we can rule out any of them that don’t win that run.

Katchit would look a great bet on stats but has been very much out of form this season. If he gets back to his old ways and wins his final prep race that would put him bang in there with a fantastic chance. A win for Katchit and defeat for the three five year olds in their final prep runs would make Katchit look an amazing bet according to the stats.

Check Back Soon

With the final prep runs still to be had for many of the top contenders it may be best to hold your bets until they have been run. I will revisit this blog once all the preps are out of the way.

Share Your Thoughts With Us

Do you fancy one of the stats no hopers such as Sublimity? If so make a case for it and let us know what you think. He may be a previous winner and second favourite (at time of writing) but we think he has no chance.

If you think we are wrong to hold these key looking stats in such high regard then reply to this blog and make a case for only considering form. Are there any bigger priced horses that we haven’t considered that fit the stats perfectly? If there are then we want to know about it.

The 2008 Cheltenham Festival will be remembered for reverting back to a 3 day meeting after weather scuppered the Wednesday card and also as the Festival where stats enthusiasts had a nightmare.

The Champion Races

Five year olds won both the Champion Hurdle and Champion Chase and what a performance by Master Minded. Wherever he goes next year he is going to be an absolute machine. Inglis Drever also defied the statisticians by winning his third World Hurdle as a 9 year old and in the Gold Cup, the machine that is Denman overcame the poor recent record of Hennessy winners. Harry Findlay, part owner of Denman has nominated the 2009 Grand National as an option for Denman and what a site it would be to see Denman race over Aintree’s famous fences.

The Bankers

Just two favourites won at the 2008 Cheltenham Festival. Out of eleven favourites that started 3/1 or less just one of them was victorious and that was Inglis Drever who won the World Hurdle at 11/8. Beaten short price favourites include Noland in the Arkle (7/4), Sizing Europe in the Champion Hurdle (2/1), Ashkazar in the Fred Winter (15/8), Franchoek in the Triumph (Evs) and the shortest price at this year’s Festival, Kauto Star in the Gold Cup (10/11).

What Now?

The remaining highlights for jumps enthusiasts are the Irish, Scottish and Aintree Grand Nationals and the Sandown Gold Cup, all big field handicaps run over marathon trips. For more information on the Aintree Grand National you should check out Grand National Guide Blog which is updated regularly and for further help picking the winner of the big race visit Grand National Guide, a great site woth loads of information about the Grand National Runners, Grand National Odds, Grand National Betting, Grand National Free Bets and a brilliant winner prediction tool.

The Cheltenham Blog will now concentrate on the 2009 Cheltenham Festival and will give you all the news and views as they happen.

On Tuesday the Arkle was won in impressive fashion by Tidal Bay and he was followed home by Kruguyrova.

This afternoon in the Jewson Novices Handicap Chase (1.40) Mr Strachan runs off 10-11 and is half way down the weights. This is despite the fact that he has beaten Kruguyrova by 2 1/2 lengths this season and also been beat by just 4 lengths by Tidal Bay (Mr Strachan received 6lbs from the winner). Those two runs would put him as the second best horse in the Arkle.

More form pointers  come from Mr Strachan’s chasing debut where he finished second to L’Antartique who is one of the favourites for today’s Ryan Air Chase.

Despite all this Mr Strachan is generally available at 8/1 this morning. This afternoon we could all be kicking ourselves for not having our biggest bet of the Festival on this very well handicapped horse.

All the bookmakers will be competing for your cash this week which means there are plenty of incentives to bet with each bookmaker. Here is a list of the best bookmaker offers for this week.

Paddy Power

Possibly the best bookmaker to bet with during the Festival. They are refunding singles and win parts of each way bets if your horse is beaten by the sp favourite. This offer is not quite as fantastic as it seems as there aren’t a massie amount of winning favourites at the Festival but in races you have narrowed down to the favourite and another it is a great safety net and is also worthwhile when you are opposing short priced hot favourites. Noland springs to mind today.

Blue Square

They are offering a free £5 bet to existing customers today. All you need to do is click on my account and enter the free bet code ‘tues5′. Then place your free bet!

VC Bet

If you back a faller VC will give you a free bet to the same stake on the following day’s racing. If backing a dodgy jumper, do it with VC!

Boylesports

If Kauto Star wins the Gold Cup and Denman finishes runner up they will refund all singles on runners up on every other Festival race!

Bet365

Bet365 have been running their Channel 4/1 for a long time now and it has been a great success. On any of the Channel 4 televised races if you back a winner at 4/1 or more you get a free bet of the same stake (up to £50) on the next Channel 4 race.

In order to keep up to date with all of the bookmaker’s offers it is worth bookmarking this site – OLBG bookie promotions

I think it is safe to say most of us are going to be betting on many races this week during the Cheltenham Festival. You should also remember that there are other ways to make money from your Cheltenham knowledge that don’t necessarily require you risking money in the traditional way, or risking any money at all.

Select A Cheltenham Stable

Each year for the major events the Racing Post run their select a stable competition. This involves picking ten horses from the Festival, two of which you will nominate as bankers. The bankers will score double points. Points are scored on how well your horse finishes and what sort of sp it finishes at if it wins.

The competition can be found here Select A Stable and costs £5 to enter. There is £32, 500 up for grabs in prizes.

It is also fun to play this competition amongst work/university friends. You each pick a stable under the rules and put a nominated amount into a kitty. The best stable at the end of the Festival takes the prize pool.

OLBG Tipster Competition

There is a free tipster competition run at OLBG.co.uk that offers a number of cash prizes for various sports. All you have to do is register with the site (for free) and submit your tips whenever you see fit. OLBG run a special Cheltenham Tipster Comp over Cheltenham with £1, 000 up for grabs.

EBA Chief Of Cheltenham

Expert Betting Advice are running a tipster competition over the Cheltenham Festival with a trophy and cash going to the winner, a cash prize going to the runner up and a cash prize going to the biggest priced winner. All you have to do is pick three horses each day.

OHR Cheltenham Tipping Comp

A tip must be submitted for each race and a small prize will be awarded to the winner. This competition is more for a bit of fun and interest in each race than anything else. Click here for more details – OHR Cheltenham Festival Tipping Comp.