It’s just under two months till the Cheltenham Festival and if you’re not sitting on a high value Cheltenham Betting ante-post voucher for Kauto Star should you think about taking the price currently on offer? (11/8 with Boylesports
at the time of writing)

It could be argued that Kauto’s price is unlikely to contract much between now and Gold Cup day but is that true? Paul Nicholls has stated that keeping Kauto Star fresh is the key to him and we are therefore unlikely to see the son of Village Star again before March 19th. However, this does not mean that his price cannot shorten between then and now. It’s a brave punter who is prepared to look outside the front two in the Gold Cup for their Cheltenham Tips and an improved performance from one of the ‘pretenders’ in unlikely to make a dent in Kauto’s price but stablemate Denman does have the power to affect the current Gold Cup Betting.

Denman is due to run again before the Gold Cup, either in the Irish Hennessy or the Aon Chase a week later at Newbury. He is likely to be a short-price for either race but the Irish race in particular would not be a penalty kick and has the potential to cause an upset to Denman fans. Other horses that have been quoted for Leopardstown include Joncol, Money Trix, Notre Pere, Cooldine and Madison Du Berlais and whilst Denman should deal with these horses it’s not impossible for the travelling and heavy ground to contribute extra stress into a tricky race.
If Denman wins I wouldn’t imagine the Gold Cup Betting would be affected as a win is expected but if Denman got beat we could see Kauto Star shorten up to a very short price indeed.
I wouldn’t normally advocate backing an 11/8 shot two months before the Festival but I think there is the potential for a big swing in the ante-post punters favour here if he or she were to take Kauto Star’s Gold Cup Odds.

What are your thoughts? Are you tempted to back Kauto now or will you keep your money in your pocket until the day of the race?

For the time being we will just have one thread for the ‘other’ races at the Festival so please use this page to tell us if you think Dunguib represents any value at 7/4 for the Supreme Novices or tell us if you fancy Sizing Europe or Tataniano for the Arkle and why.

Maybe you think Tranquil Sea can follow up his Paddy Power win in the Ryanair or that Punchestowns is the one to be on in the RSA Chase?

Please give us all your thoughts on any of the races at the Cheltenham Festival 2010 not covered in the other four threads.

If you had to pick one horse now who might win at the Cheltenham Festival in 2010 would you pick Big Bucks?

Lots of people surely would as he was a convincing winner of this race in 2009 and the majority of the horses currently quoted as potential opposition look unlikely to be lining up in the World Hurdle in 2010.

The opposing view is that quotes at around the Even money mark are very skinny price for any horse months in advance of the race.

We desperately need some viable alternatives to Big Bucks as possible ante-post selections for the World Hurdle – give us your thoughts and cheltenham tips on this page.

The 2009 Champion Hurdle provided an epic tussle with Punjabi, Celestial Halo and Binocular separated by just a neck and a head after a driving finish up the Cheltenham hill. Looking at the Cheltenham betting, all three look set to return in 2010 and a mouth watering race is in prospect with the likes of Hurricane Fly, Solwhit, Zaynar and Go Native all likely to be added into the mix as well.

The Champion Hurdle has in recent years thrown up winners from very different backgrounds – horses that started life on the flat have provided the last three winners (Punjabi, Katchit and Sublimity) but the three winners before that (Brave Inca, Hardy Eustace and Rooster Booster) were all traditionally bred National Hunt horses.

Does this mean that we now moving towards seeing a flat race pedigree as a major positive for your Champion Hurdle selection? Or can the traditional NH bred still hold its own?

There have been plenty of winners in the past with a flat heritage (Kribensis, Royal Gait, Alderbrook and even the mighty Istabraq to name just a few) so it may just be that there will always be this swing between NH breds and horses from the flat or have changes to the course at Cheltenham and the improved drainage etc swung things in favour of horses from off of the level once and for all?

Give us your thoughts and tips for the 2010 Champion Hurdle and let us know if you prefer a horse with a NH pedigree or something from a group race winning sire?

Winner of the Queen Mother Champion Chase in 2008 and 2009, Paul Nicholls’ Master Minded remains favourite in the cheltenham betting lists to record a hat-trick of wins in 2010 despite suffering defeat on his seasonal reappearance in the Connaught Chase at Cheltenham.

No horse has achieved a hat-trick of wins in the Champion Chase since Badsworth Boy in 1983-85 and there will surely be plenty of people looking to oppose the current champion after his reappearance where he appeared to hang to his right and finished in close proximity to two horses rated 20lb+ inferior to him.

If Master Minded is not your ante-post selection for the 2010 Queen Mother then the race appears wide open for any number of potential new champions. Second season chasers Forpadytheplasterer and Kalahari King must come into the equation as must established stars such as Well Chief and possibly even former champ Voy Por Ustedes who could return to the minimum distance if it appears there is a chink in Master Minded’s armour.

Twist Magic’s excellent performance in winning the Tingle Creek has seen his price for the Queen Mother evaporate but surely he has shown his dislike for Cheltenham on anough occasions to be seen as eminently opposable at single figure odds? What do you think?

A fascinating run-up to the race looks certain – let us know who your cheltenham tips for the Queen Mother Champion Chase 2010.

The Supreme Novices’ Hurdle is the race that heralds the start of the 2009 Cheltenham Festival at 1.30pm on Tuesday afternoon. It will signal the start of one of the exhilarating four days of the racing calendar. Let’s make sure we get off to a flyer by backing the winner!

1.30 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle

Cousin Vinny is the favourite for this race but has been the subject of negative reports since arriving in the country from Ireland. Those who are not already financially committed to the horse are likely to be looking elsewhere for a bet.

Tophichen has won both his starts over hurdles so far and clearly relishes soft ground so will appreciate the predcited rainfall on Monday night. His last run worked out very well with Trenchant, the horse he beat by 3 3/4 lengths, going on to win a Grade 2 novices’ hurdle next time out. He could be the each way steal for the powerful Pipe yard.

Go Native won well last time out and is another that will appreciate easier going. He looks to be improving and goes to Cheltenham with a great chance of being Ireland’s first winner of the week.

Kempes, who like Cousin Vinny is trained by Willie Mullins, has won both his races this season. He, along with the likes of Micheal Flips and Red Maloney all have a great chance, although the latter two’s chances might be compromised if all of the forecast rain falls on Monday night.

If you fancy any other horse than Cousin Vinny, it would be a good idea to place your bets with Paddy Power. They will refund all losing stakes if Cousin Vinny wins the race. That looks a pretty generous concession and could cost Paddy Power hundreds of thousands of pounds.

Day one of the Cheltenham Festival 2009 is upon us and as usual there are going to be plenty of contrasting Cheltenham tips floating around. The best approach may be to back solid each way shots that should place at the very least.

Supreme Novices’ Hurdle

Cousin Vinny is the hot favourite but his trainer reported he has not eaten up since traveling over from Ireland and that he expected to be a lot more confident. Torpichen is unbeaten in two starts over hurdles and will appreciate every drop of rain that falls tonight having been a heavy ground winner on the flat. He looks an each way bet to nothing and if you back him at Paddy Power you will get your stake back if Cousin Vinny wins the race.

Arkle Chase

Those at the head of the market look plenty short enough, take a chance on Forpadydeplasterer. He has not been out of the first two over fences this season and is more likely than any of the other favourites to run his race.

William Hill Trophy 

A very competitive handicap that could go to Nenuphar Collonges. He has two wins and a second from three runs at Cheltenham and fits the profile of recent winners. Any more rain won’t be a problem and Paddy Power are offering 5 places for each way punters.

Champion Hurdle

Usually one of the most exciting races of the entire Festival has a red hot favourite in the shape of Binocular. He will be very hard to beat but won’t make you rich so take a chance on Celestial Halo. He has twice finished behind Binocular but conditions will be more in favour of Celestial Halo than Binocular so at the very least you would expect the gap to be closed, if not bridged.

Cross Country Chase

Edna Bolger looks sure to win this race but it is not quite so simple picking the winner as she has the two favourites, L’Ami and Garde Champetre. A forecast in that order should pay around 10/1 and looks a pretty decent bet.

David Nicholson Mares’ Hurdle

The two favourites look solid enough but Chomba Womba may have the most pace over this trip and having finished third in the race last year is a solid each way selection. Bet365 are paying four places in the race.

Cheltenham Tipster Competitions make betting at the Cheltenham Festival that little bit easier. Finding the winners doesn’t get any easier but they offer the chance to win something for nothing and give you an interest in every race without the need to bet on every race.

Cheltenham Festival Tipping Competitions

There are plenty of Free Cheltenham Tipping Competitions out there. The best are listed below:

Free Cheltenham Tipping Competition – £1000 up for grabs

Cheltenham Tipping Challenge – Make three tips a day

Cheltenham Festival Tips

If you need help picking your Cheltenham Festival Tips then there are plenty of web resources out there to help proved profitable tips:

Cheltenham Festival Tips – The best tips from the Cheltenham Festival

Cheltenham Festival Stats – All the stats to point you in the direction of the winner of each race

Cheltenham Tips – Discussion on one of the busiest horse racing forums on the net

Where To Place Cheltenham Bets

Once you have decided which Cheltenham Tips you want to use for a Free Cheltenham Tipping Competition and which ones you want to make your Cheltenham Festival Bets you will need to find the Best Cheltenham Odds. That can be done with the following resource:

Best Cheltenham Odds – Valuechecker points you towards value bets and compares the best prices

The Cheltenham Festival is now just a week away and punters are now scrambling to get their last minute Cheltenham Festival Tips together. Many will have been punting on the 2009 Cheltenham Festival from as far back as last March whilst others will not have placed even one or two Cheltenham Festival Bets so far.

Most Popular Races

The Cheltenham Festival Odds have changed plenty over the past few months but that doesn’t mean there are not plenty of good Cheltenham Tips out there. The four most popular races to bet on should be the Champion Hurdle, the Champion Chase, the World Hurdle and the Cheltenham Gold Cup.

The Four Championship Races – Tips

Cheltenham Gold Cup

Denman was favourite in the Gold Cup Odds at the start of the season but one lacklustre run this season has seen him drift out to third favouritism. The favourite in the Cheltenham Gold Cup Betting is now the 2007 winner, Kauto Star.

Champion Hurdle

In the Champion Hurdle most punters are tipping Binocular, the red hot favourite, but his Cheltenham Festival Odds are now very short and a better bet could be Celestial Halo each way.

Master Minded

Master Minded is looking pretty unbeatable in the Champion Chase but he is the shortest price favourite at the Festival and is surely best backed in a double or treble with one of the other Festival ‘bankers’.

World Hurdle

The World Hurdle also has a short priced favourite in the form of Kasbah Bliss but many are unconvinced because the horse has not won in four runs at Cheltenham. Punchestowns, Big Bucks and Fair Along are the horses that people are opposing Kasbah Bliss with.

Share Your Thoughts

Let us know your thoughts about the best tips for Cheltenham, whatever they may be. Is Master Minded the dead cert everyone reckons? Will Binocular and Kasbah Bliss prove themselves up the Cheltenham hill with their first wins at the course?

Why Take Note Of Stats?

In the most competitive races it often pays to take strong notice of the stats for previous winners. There is a reason a certain type of horse wins a race year after year and the World Hurdle is no exception. In this year’s World Hurdle we can start chucking horses out based on the stats on this page World Hurdle Stats.

This Year’s World Hurdle Hopefuls

We can’t see each horse’s final prep run yet which will be important but we can start ruling some horses out. The main contenders at this stage are:

Punchestowns – One of the few runners in this year’s event to fit the MUST HAVE stat for either not running in the previous year’s Festival or running in the World Hurdle or Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. He has won at Cheltenham, won both his starts this year and is likely to go to the Festival with three races on his back this season, winning at least half his starts.

Kasbah Bliss – Came second in last year’s World Hurdle which can be determined as a positive but has not run over jumps this season and has never won at Cheltenham in four starts which means he is probably playing for a minor role again if participating.

Blazing Bailey – Ran in last year’s World Hurdle but only came fourth which is a big negative. He has also not yet won over hurdles this season so has to be overlooked.

Big Bucks – Would be an unusual winner of the World Hurdle having taken in the Jewson Novices Handicap Chase at last year’s Festival. That is a negative in itself and finishing outside of the top two in that race is another negative. Has at least won a race this season and won at Cheltenham.

Fair Along – Fails the vital stat of having run in either the World Hurdle or Supreme Novices’ Hurdle if running at the previous year’s Festival. He has won this season and has a decent enough Cheltenham record (4 from 11) but is overlooked because of his Champion Chase run last year.

Mobaasher – Another who ran in the ‘wrong’ race last year, the Pertemps Final Handicap Hurdle and has also not won yet this season in three attempts.

Duc De Regniere – Didn’t run at last year’s Festival but has failed to win in two attempts at Cheltenham which is somewhat a negative. Has won this season and another decent run before the World Hurdle would give him some chance at a big price.

So Who Do We Back?

Punchestowns looks a great bet for stats followers and even though he is favourite he still looks a good bet in a year that very few rivals meet anywhere near enough of the stats to be considered. Should win.

Several of the fancied horses such as Kasbah Bliss and Big Bucks will probably run well but don’t look half as solid as the favourite and one at a big price that could go well is Duc De Regniere who may fit some of the best stats depending on his next run.

Check Back Soon

I will revisit this after the final prep runs but it does look as though Punchestowns is an outstanding bet in this race and could be one of the bankers of the meeting. That is unlikely to change between now and the time this blog is updated but one or two other contenders might emerge between now and then based on the stats.

Share Your Thoughts With Us

Do you fancy one of the stats no hopers such as Blazing Bailey? If so make a case for it and let us know what you think. He may be one of the favourites (at time of writing) but we think he has no chance.

If you think we are wrong to hold stats for the World Hurdle in such high regard then reply to this blog and make a case for only considering form. Are there any bigger priced horses that are due to run in the World Hurdle that we haven’t considered that fit the stats perfectly? If there are then we want to know about it.