Imperial Commander was due to run in the King George at Kempton following his reappearance victory in the Betfair Chase at Haydock, but suffered a setback. Reports emanating from the Twiston-Davies yard have been upbeat, though, and he goes well fresh, and loves Cheltenham – he has won five of his six starts over fences at Prestbury Park. Imperial Commander is now aged 10 and only one 10-year-old, Cool Dawn in 1998, has won the Gold Cup since ’93. Conversely, the Fleminsfirth gelding has few miles on the clock for a horse of his age.

Kauto Star became the first horse to regain the Gold Cup in 2009, and Denman, so impressive when winning the Festival showpiece in 2008, will be bidding to emulate his stablemate on March 18. Kauto Star, a top-priced 13-2 with Coral at the time of writing, will join an elite group consisting of Golden Miller, Cottage Rake, Arkle and Best Mate if he manages to register a third Gold Cup victory. However, he was well held in the King George at Kempton in January and, as an 11-year-old, he has a major age stat to overcome: no horse older than 10 has landed this prestigious chase since What A Myth prevailed as a 12-year-old in 1969.

Denman is also 11, so it could be that although he is more than double the price of his two illustrious stablemates, the year younger Neptune Collonges could emerge as champion trainer Paul Nicholls’ best chance of a winner in the 2011 Gold Cup. The grey appeared to be back to his best when landing the Argento Chase at the Gloucestershire venue in his latest start and the 33-1 widely available doesn’t look bad value at all, particularly from an each-way betting perspective.

At the other end of the age scale, Long Run, generally second favourite for the Gold Cup, also has a major stat to overcome. Indeed, no horse aged six has won this race since Mill House in 1963. Nicky Henderson’s charge was an emphatic winner of the King George when last seen out, but there are still many that question whether the French import possesses the requisite stamina for the Gold Cup’s 3m 2½f trip, especially on an undulating track like Cheltenham.

Irish raiders Kempes and Pandorama are progressive types, while Midnight Chase has gone from strength-to-strength this season. The last-named is unbeaten in four starts over fences at Cheltenham (his last three victories have all been gained at the track) and his bold jumping will be an asset. The scene is set for a fascinating Gold Cup and it will be most interesting to see whether punters decide that Imperial Commander is a banker or blowout shortly before 3.20 on the last day of the 2011 Festival.
For more information on the Gold Cup see our gold cup trends page, gold cup tips page or check out a list of the top runners in the 2011 gold cup here.

Please give us your opnion below of who will win the 2011 Gold Cup. Is Imperial Commander a banker?

Come race day, for those that have not already committed themselves fully financially on the Ante Post markets, punters across the land will be looking to pace bets and find the best value they can for their bets. These days we have a myriad of options for both on course and stay at home punters.

The first port of call should be an odds comparison site such as www.valuechecker.co.uk where you can see all the biggest bookmakers prices in a line to find which is offering the best price on your selection. Then we have the choice of going to bookies, backing online with a firm, or playing on the exchanges which often offer better odds. (Don’t forget to factor in the commission here). Then if you are on course there is the choice of the Rails Bookmakers or the Tote windows.

This is all well and good for taking a price, but those odds can move before the race is off and the Sp’s can change come off time. So, we take a quick look at some examples from last years results to find where the best Sp prices were to be found.

In the main there was little gain in taking morning odds against eventual Sp. Notable exceptions would be A new Story in the Cross Country who could have been had at 40/1 in the am, only to return at 25′s. Sanctuaire was gambled from 13/2 into 4/1 favouritism and two further winners were available at 50/1 morning odds only to return 33/1 (Berties Dream) and 16/1 Pigeon Island which was some gamble. All in all there were 9 that returned shorter odds than their morning prices that were better than SP, Tote Sp or Betfair Sp.

Betfair Sp returned 13 of the winners better than any available price on the day including a whopping 84.55 on the Bumper winner Cue Card. That returned 40/1 on industry and at 60.6/1 on the Tote.

The Tote paid the biggest on four winners, Chief Dan George (51.7/1), Spirit River (18.3/1), Great Endeavour (30.3/1) and marginally on Pause and Clause (20.3/1).

Industry Sp did not return a single winner better than any price available on the day

All in all, it seems we can take a morning price, but need to anticipate the contractions if doing so.

If betting at home, check www.valuechecker.co.uk before placing bets if taking a price, otherwise, Betfair Sp performed admirably. If you dont have a Betfair account, click here to open one and claim a £25 free bet.

If on course, the Tote and industry Sp differed very little across the whole meeting, so have some fun trying to find the best price you can in the melee that is the busiest betting ring of them all.

Which is your favourite way of betting for the best returns?

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Everyone loves a favourite don’t they? Every punter across the land has their Banker for the week lined up, sometimes, weeks or months in advance. Who are the bankers for 2011 and how can we expect them to get on. Will the smiles be on the faces of happy punters or happier layers on the rails?

Here we take a look into past performances of the favourites over recent seasons at the festival and see if there any angles to be had in backing a shortie at arguably the most competitive National Hunt meeting of them all.

Since 2002 there have been 3970 runners take on the Prestbury Park course over the Festival week; Of those, 226 have been sent off Sp favourite, singularly, joint or Co-Favs. Of those 226 favourites, 50 have returned home first to justify the support. That is a below average 22% strike rate, and as you might imagine, if backing them all blindly there would be a hole in the pocket of the favourite backer. A 15% loss of investment equates to a £32.40 loss to every pound invested.

A quick look at each year in isolation shows us that this has not been the case every year and in fact the biggest losses have been seen only in recent seasons, 2010 would have seen a 12.17 loss as only four favourites scored in 27 races. The year the bookies made hay was 2008. Just 2 winning favourites meant a whopping loss of 75% of the bank. So perhaps this is the year when the bookies take a hiding again?

Only three years in the last ten would have seen favourite backers bank a profit. 2006 was the last time, then 2004 and in 2003 10 of the 22 races were won by favourites.

So will this year be a week for the backers or layers?

There is one angle that has proven to be a profitable one for backing the market leaders over the years. Surprisingly, it would seem the “Bankers” as they are described don’t do so badly. If following only those priced between Evens and 15/8 blindly a strike rate of 50% would have been had with 16 winners from 32 qualifiers. For a £7.67 profit or 23%ROI.

Ruby Walsh is not a bad bet when on a favourite, he has ridden 40 favourites in the time frame researched, scoring with 15of those for a 37% strike rate and £12.38 profit to level stakes would have kept many happy.

So who are this years bankers? Who do we back and who do we lay?.My thoughts in brackets

Supreme Novices Hurdle – Cue Card  (BACK)

Champion Hurdle – Binocular  (BACK)

David Nicholson Hurdle – Quevega  (LAY)

RSA – Time For Rupert  (BACK)

Champion Chase – Master Minded  (LAY)

World Hurdle – Big Bucks  (LAY)

Gold Cup – Imperial Commander  (BACK)

Foxhunters Chase – Baby Run (LAY)

I predict  four of these will win at most, and if playing  a Yankee would include

Cue Card – Binocular – Time For Rupert and Imperial Commander.

We start with the Champion Hurdle

The Stan James Champion Hurdle promises to be a fascinating contest. At the time of writing, last year’s hero Binocular is favourite across the board to become the first horse since Hardy Eustace (2004 and 2005) to land back-to-back Champion Hurdles. Nicky Henderson’s charge was impressive last year, but he faces sterner opposition this time round in what looks a vintage renewal of the Grade One event.

It could turn out to be churlish to read too much into the fact that Binocular was beaten by one of the main challengers to his crown on March 15, Peddlers Cross, in the Fighting Fifth Hurdle earlier this season. Indeed, he was below par in that race last term, too. But he was rather laboured in winning at odds of 1-10 in the Contenders Hurdle at Sandown last time, which is disconcerting, even allowing for the fact that Henderson wouldn’t have had the gelding fully tuned-up for that assignment.

In the 2010 Champion Binocular beat some very good hurdlers, including runner-up Khyber Kim who will renew rivalry on March 15. However, it’s not hard to pick holes in the form, particularly with Go Native, who was sent off the 11-4 favourite, failing to run any sort of a race. Furthermore, the reigning champion will be up against not only his Newbury nemesis Peddlers Cross, but also up-and-coming types like Menorah and Oscar Whisky, while there are two very intriguing raiders from the Emerald Isle to consider in Hurricane Fly and Dunguib.

Menorah excels when faced with the unique undulations of Cheltenham – he is unbeaten in three starts at the track. Philip Hobbs’ representative, winner of the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle last season, gave lumps of weight and a beating to Bothy when reappearing in the Greatwood Handicap Hurdle – a race Hobbs’ Rooster Booster won en route to Champion Hurdle glory in 2003 – and added the International Hurdle to his CV when last seen out in December. His street-fighter qualities will make him a serious contender.

The main concern surrounding Peddlers Cross is whether he will have the requisite pace to win a Champion Hurdle, a question mark which also hangs over Oscar Whisky, while Hurricane Fly is something of a dark horse. Willie Mullins’ great white hope has been turned over just once in eight starts since joining Ireland’s champion trainer, having been brought over from France, but he has never raced on UK soil before and, moreover, the frenetic pace of the Champion will be unlike anything he has previously encountered.

So is Binocular a banker or a blowout? It’s an intriguing question. At around the 7-2 mark he is priced up fairly in my opinion, but he faces a sterner test than last year – the sternest test of his career, in fact – and by backing him you would have to do so in the belief that Henderson has left plenty to work on between his Sandown victory and the Champion.

What do you think?

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Between now and the Supreme Novices’ ‘Roar’ on Tuesday, we will be looking at some of the Festival Markets and to kick-off with an easy one, let’s consider the ‘Biggest Winning SP’ index.

Quite simply, the biggest winning SP across the four-days constitutes the make/up and the quote with extrabet.com is currently  47.5 – 49*, with a maximum make up of 100.

Since the festival was switched to 4-days in 2005, the highest winning SP’s have been 40/1, 50/1, 50/1, 66/1, 33/1 & 40/1.

Had we bought each year at 49, we would have had three profitable years but on average, lost 2.5 times our unit stake. So that’s a poor result? No, I don’t think it is. Remember that we could have a 100/1 winner, a result which would give us a massive 51 point profit or an 80/1 winner giving a profit of 31 points.

Playing with scenarios, if we felt we could stand the loss of 2.5 points each year (and accept what I think is a very worst case scenario of a 33/1 winner being the highest SP in any one year – losing 16 points), then we could have 20 years of 2.5 average loss but be in profit if the 21^st year turned up a 100/1 winner. If there happened to be a couple of years in 21 where the winning SP was 100/1, then we would be 103.5 points up, a good return.

My feeling is that is a genuine chance of a 66/1, 80/1 or 100/1 victor over the four days and I would be surprised if we did not see an SP of at least 40/1. My conclusion therefore is that this market has very limited upside for sellers but a big potential for buyers, with real prospects of a decent return. I recommend buying at 49* with extrabet.com.

Note that the content of this article is the opinion of the author and does not constitute financial advice. Spread betting carries a high risk and it is essential to understand the risks involved before placing a bet.

*Prices may fluctuate.

The history of the race is littered with 10 year old winners, Eleven of them in fact, the first of them Easter Hero in 1930. There was no Gold Cup in 1937. If there had of been, perhaps Golden Miller could have won as a ten year old after winning the race for the previous five consecutive years aged 5 to 9.

The common take now is that we will not see a ten year old winning the race. If we look at the current Cheltenham betting, this would eliminate the chances of most of the leading lights for this years race. Last years winner Imperial Commander will be ten this time round. Twice previous winner Kauto star last won aged nine, two years ago, that makes him 11. His stable mate Denman, fancied by many to be able to match Kauto and win again in 2011, is the same age.

As much as this may open up the argument for Long Run followers, it should be remembered that Nicky Hendersons gelding is only six years old. If the record for ten year olds is bad, its nothing compared to the youngsters. The last six year old to win this race was the legendaryFulke Walkywn trained Mill House in 1963. Only two other 6yo’s have won in the history of the race, one of those of course being Golden Miller.

Coming through the betting market to find the next non 6yo or 10yo, we have to go down as far as 5th and 6th favourites, Kempes and Pandorama to find a couple of 8yos. Midnight Chase is nine, and China Rock at 50/1 is the next in line.

So the question is. How strong is age as a gold cup trend, and in 2011, how much influence will it have on your decision of selection?

Can Denman or Kauto Star become the first 11year old to win since Mandarin in 1962?

Can Imperial Commander not only retain the Gold Cup but be the first 10 year old since Cool Dawn?

Will Long Run arrive on the scene and break a near 40 year hoodoo for 6yos?

Or will the racego to a more traditional 7, 8 or 9 year old in the form of Kempes or Pandorama?

Dunguib 5/6 Supreme Novices Hurdle

Quevega 6/4 David Nicholson Mares Hurdle

Master Minded 10/11 Queen Mother

Big Bucks 8/13 Stayers Hurdle

Kauto Star 8/11 Gold Cup

How many of the above do you think will win and how many will you be backing or laying?

Which of the big five would you be most happy to take on?

Personally it would have to be Quevega. OK, she is the biggest price of the five but it could be argued that the she has pontentially the easiest task with a very weak looking set of mares to take on. However, the snippets of info coming from the Mullins yard have not been overly enthusiastic about her chances and he has been quoting as saying things like ‘hopefully she will warm up over the first two hurdles’ and that the injury she suffered after he visit to France was, at one time, considered career ending.
I couldn’t dream of taking 6/4 about a horse with this kind of background.

Let us know your Cheltenham betting banker and lay of the five short favourites.

However, Cheltenham Betting punters have had the race made slightly less complicated by the unfortunate withdrawal of last year’s third place horse, Binocular.

It could be argued that the picture was also made clearer by Zaynar’s defeat at long odds on at Kelso – hardly the ideal Champion Hurdle preparation?

Those two horses are trained by Nicky Henderson who also has last year’s winner Punjabi ready to run this weekend in the hastily re-arranged Champion Hurdle trial at Kempton. The 2009 Champ could also do with a form boost after two defeats so far this season.

With last year’s runner-up Celestial Halo also, arguably, not running up to form this season the focus shifts on to horses who have not run in the two mile championship before, in the shape of Solwhit, Go Native and Medermit.

It can surely be argued that these ‘new kids’ have the vastly superior form this time round and the title looks likely to rest between them.

Here at Cheltenham Betting we have nailed our colours to Go Native who will be aiming not only for the Champion Hurdle but the WBX Million Pound bonus for winning the Fighting Fifth Hurdle at Newcastle and the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton. Go Native would prefer decent ground and as long as its not too soft must have a great chance of winning the 2010 Champion Hurdle.

Go Native features as one of our Cheltenham Tips – make sure you keep checking that page between now and the Festival to see who else we will be recommending.

On the face of things we are struggling for a viable alternative to the power duo from the Paul Nicholls yard so last year’s RSA Chase winner would seem the each-way thieves ideal pick now he appears to have put in another top-class performance. Or is he?

Plus Points:

• Already a Cheltenham Festival winner so the course and fences hold no fears.
• Came close to winning a Grade One last time out so apparently in good form.
• Trainer Willie Mullins stated before that race that he was concerned his horse might not be 100% fit so an even better performance could be expected at Cheltenham.

Negatives:

• The RSA Chase he won last year has turned out to be a sub-standard renewal of that race.
• The Hennessy Gold Cup last Sunday was run at an absolute crawl and is no real indication of Grade One form (or fitness).
• It could be argued that his overall form is no better than Taranis or What A Friend and they can be backed at three times the price.

So, Cooldine, excellent each-way bet for the Cheltenham Gold Cup or over rated and likely to flop – let us know which side you would be on?

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Good Luck!