One of the feature races of Cheltenham 2010 is undoubtedly the Champion Hurdle with the race shaping as one of the most competitive in recent years.
However, Cheltenham Betting punters have had the race made slightly less complicated by the unfortunate withdrawal of last year’s third place horse, Binocular.
It could be argued that the picture was also made clearer by Zaynar’s defeat at long odds on at Kelso – hardly the ideal Champion Hurdle preparation?
Those two horses are trained by Nicky Henderson who also has last year’s winner Punjabi ready to run this weekend in the hastily re-arranged Champion Hurdle trial at Kempton. The 2009 Champ could also do with a form boost after two defeats so far this season.
With last year’s runner-up Celestial Halo also, arguably, not running up to form this season the focus shifts on to horses who have not run in the two mile championship before, in the shape of Solwhit, Go Native and Medermit.
It can surely be argued that these ‘new kids’ have the vastly superior form this time round and the title looks likely to rest between them.
Here at Cheltenham Betting we have nailed our colours to Go Native who will be aiming not only for the Champion Hurdle but the WBX Million Pound bonus for winning the Fighting Fifth Hurdle at Newcastle and the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton. Go Native would prefer decent ground and as long as its not too soft must have a great chance of winning the 2010 Champion Hurdle.
Go Native features as one of our Cheltenham Tips – make sure you keep checking that page between now and the Festival to see who else we will be recommending.
Cooldine is now a best price of 14/1 with VCBet for the Cheltenham Gold Cup following his return to form in the Hennessy Gold Cup at Leopardstown last Sunday. But is that price good value?
On the face of things we are struggling for a viable alternative to the power duo from the Paul Nicholls yard so last year’s RSA Chase winner would seem the each-way thieves ideal pick now he appears to have put in another top-class performance. Or is he?
Plus Points:
- Already a Cheltenham Festival winner so the course and fences hold no fears.
- Came close to winning a Grade One last time out so apparently in good form.
- Trainer Willie Mullins stated before that race that he was concerned his horse might not be 100% fit so an even better performance could be expected at Cheltenham.
Negatives:
- The RSA Chase he won last year has turned out to be a sub-standard renewal of that race.
- The Hennessy Gold Cup last Sunday was run at an absolute crawl and is no real indication of Grade One form (or fitness).
- It could be argued that his overall form is no better than Taranis or What A Friend and they can be backed at three times the price.
So, Cooldine, excellent each-way bet for the Cheltenham Gold Cup or over rated and likely to flop – let us know which side you would be on?
Fancy a day out at the Cheltenham Festival watching the Champion Hurdle and all the other top class racing on the 16th March?
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It’s just under two months till the Cheltenham Festival and if you’re not sitting on a high value Cheltenham Betting ante-post voucher for Kauto Star should you think about taking the price currently on offer? (11/8 with Boylesports
at the time of writing)
It could be argued that Kauto’s price is unlikely to contract much between now and Gold Cup day but is that true? Paul Nicholls has stated that keeping Kauto Star fresh is the key to him and we are therefore unlikely to see the son of Village Star again before March 19th. However, this does not mean that his price cannot shorten between then and now. It’s a brave punter who is prepared to look outside the front two in the Gold Cup for their Cheltenham Tips and an improved performance from one of the ‘pretenders’ in unlikely to make a dent in Kauto’s price but stablemate Denman does have the power to affect the current Gold Cup Betting.
Denman is due to run again before the Gold Cup, either in the Irish Hennessy or the Aon Chase a week later at Newbury. He is likely to be a short-price for either race but the Irish race in particular would not be a penalty kick and has the potential to cause an upset to Denman fans. Other horses that have been quoted for Leopardstown include Joncol, Money Trix, Notre Pere, Cooldine and Madison Du Berlais and whilst Denman should deal with these horses it’s not impossible for the travelling and heavy ground to contribute extra stress into a tricky race.
If Denman wins I wouldn’t imagine the Gold Cup Betting would be affected as a win is expected but if Denman got beat we could see Kauto Star shorten up to a very short price indeed.
I wouldn’t normally advocate backing an 11/8 shot two months before the Festival but I think there is the potential for a big swing in the ante-post punters favour here if he or she were to take Kauto Star’s Gold Cup Odds.
What are your thoughts? Are you tempted to back Kauto now or will you keep your money in your pocket until the day of the race?
For the time being we will just have one thread for the ‘other’ races at the Festival so please use this page to tell us if you think Dunguib represents any value at 7/4 for the Supreme Novices or tell us if you fancy Sizing Europe or Tataniano for the Arkle and why.
Maybe you think Tranquil Sea can follow up his Paddy Power win in the Ryanair or that Punchestowns is the one to be on in the RSA Chase?
Please give us all your thoughts on any of the races at the Cheltenham Festival 2010 not covered in the other four threads.
If you had to pick one horse now who might win at the Cheltenham Festival in 2010 would you pick Big Bucks?
Lots of people surely would as he was a convincing winner of this race in 2009 and the majority of the horses currently quoted as potential opposition look unlikely to be lining up in the World Hurdle in 2010.
The opposing view is that quotes at around the Even money mark are very skinny price for any horse months in advance of the race.
We desperately need some viable alternatives to Big Bucks as possible ante-post selections for the World Hurdle – give us your thoughts and cheltenham tips on this page.
The 2009 Champion Hurdle provided an epic tussle with Punjabi, Celestial Halo and Binocular separated by just a neck and a head after a driving finish up the Cheltenham hill. Looking at the Cheltenham betting, all three look set to return in 2010 and a mouth watering race is in prospect with the likes of Hurricane Fly, Solwhit, Zaynar and Go Native all likely to be added into the mix as well.
The Champion Hurdle has in recent years thrown up winners from very different backgrounds – horses that started life on the flat have provided the last three winners (Punjabi, Katchit and Sublimity) but the three winners before that (Brave Inca, Hardy Eustace and Rooster Booster) were all traditionally bred National Hunt horses.
Does this mean that we now moving towards seeing a flat race pedigree as a major positive for your Champion Hurdle selection? Or can the traditional NH bred still hold its own?
There have been plenty of winners in the past with a flat heritage (Kribensis, Royal Gait, Alderbrook and even the mighty Istabraq to name just a few) so it may just be that there will always be this swing between NH breds and horses from the flat or have changes to the course at Cheltenham and the improved drainage etc swung things in favour of horses from off of the level once and for all?
Give us your thoughts and tips for the 2010 Champion Hurdle and let us know if you prefer a horse with a NH pedigree or something from a group race winning sire?
Winner of the Queen Mother Champion Chase in 2008 and 2009, Paul Nicholls’ Master Minded remains favourite in the cheltenham betting lists to record a hat-trick of wins in 2010 despite suffering defeat on his seasonal reappearance in the Connaught Chase at Cheltenham.
No horse has achieved a hat-trick of wins in the Champion Chase since Badsworth Boy in 1983-85 and there will surely be plenty of people looking to oppose the current champion after his reappearance where he appeared to hang to his right and finished in close proximity to two horses rated 20lb+ inferior to him.
If Master Minded is not your ante-post selection for the 2010 Queen Mother then the race appears wide open for any number of potential new champions. Second season chasers Forpadytheplasterer and Kalahari King must come into the equation as must established stars such as Well Chief and possibly even former champ Voy Por Ustedes who could return to the minimum distance if it appears there is a chink in Master Minded’s armour.
Twist Magic’s excellent performance in winning the Tingle Creek has seen his price for the Queen Mother evaporate but surely he has shown his dislike for Cheltenham on anough occasions to be seen as eminently opposable at single figure odds? What do you think?
A fascinating run-up to the race looks certain – let us know who your cheltenham tips for the Queen Mother Champion Chase 2010.
The Supreme Novices’ Hurdle is the race that heralds the start of the 2009 Cheltenham Festival at 1.30pm on Tuesday afternoon. It will signal the start of one of the exhilarating four days of the racing calendar. Let’s make sure we get off to a flyer by backing the winner!
1.30 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle
Cousin Vinny is the favourite for this race but has been the subject of negative reports since arriving in the country from Ireland. Those who are not already financially committed to the horse are likely to be looking elsewhere for a bet.
Tophichen has won both his starts over hurdles so far and clearly relishes soft ground so will appreciate the predcited rainfall on Monday night. His last run worked out very well with Trenchant, the horse he beat by 3 3/4 lengths, going on to win a Grade 2 novices’ hurdle next time out. He could be the each way steal for the powerful Pipe yard.
Go Native won well last time out and is another that will appreciate easier going. He looks to be improving and goes to Cheltenham with a great chance of being Ireland’s first winner of the week.
Kempes, who like Cousin Vinny is trained by Willie Mullins, has won both his races this season. He, along with the likes of Micheal Flips and Red Maloney all have a great chance, although the latter two’s chances might be compromised if all of the forecast rain falls on Monday night.
If you fancy any other horse than Cousin Vinny, it would be a good idea to place your bets with Paddy Power. They will refund all losing stakes if Cousin Vinny wins the race. That looks a pretty generous concession and could cost Paddy Power hundreds of thousands of pounds.
Day one of the Cheltenham Festival 2009 is upon us and as usual there are going to be plenty of contrasting Cheltenham tips floating around. The best approach may be to back solid each way shots that should place at the very least.
Supreme Novices’ Hurdle
Cousin Vinny is the hot favourite but his trainer reported he has not eaten up since traveling over from Ireland and that he expected to be a lot more confident. Torpichen is unbeaten in two starts over hurdles and will appreciate every drop of rain that falls tonight having been a heavy ground winner on the flat. He looks an each way bet to nothing and if you back him at Paddy Power you will get your stake back if Cousin Vinny wins the race.
Arkle Chase
Those at the head of the market look plenty short enough, take a chance on Forpadydeplasterer. He has not been out of the first two over fences this season and is more likely than any of the other favourites to run his race.
William Hill Trophy
A very competitive handicap that could go to Nenuphar Collonges. He has two wins and a second from three runs at Cheltenham and fits the profile of recent winners. Any more rain won’t be a problem and Paddy Power are offering 5 places for each way punters.
Champion Hurdle
Usually one of the most exciting races of the entire Festival has a red hot favourite in the shape of Binocular. He will be very hard to beat but won’t make you rich so take a chance on Celestial Halo. He has twice finished behind Binocular but conditions will be more in favour of Celestial Halo than Binocular so at the very least you would expect the gap to be closed, if not bridged.
Cross Country Chase
Edna Bolger looks sure to win this race but it is not quite so simple picking the winner as she has the two favourites, L’Ami and Garde Champetre. A forecast in that order should pay around 10/1 and looks a pretty decent bet.
David Nicholson Mares’ Hurdle
The two favourites look solid enough but Chomba Womba may have the most pace over this trip and having finished third in the race last year is a solid each way selection. Bet365 are paying four places in the race.