This year’s totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup is arguably one of the most open renewals in recent years, with many firms going around 7-2 the field. Last season’s winner of jump racing’s Blue Riband event, Imperial Commander, heads the market and Nigel Twiston-Davies’ charge will be bidding to become just the second horse since L’Escargot (1970-71) to win back-to-back Gold Cups. Best Mate, who made it three wins in a row in 2004, is the only horse in recent years to achieve the feat.
Imperial Commander was due to run in the King George at Kempton following his reappearance victory in the Betfair Chase at Haydock, but suffered a setback. Reports emanating from the Twiston-Davies yard have been upbeat, though, and he goes well fresh, and loves Cheltenham – he has won five of his six starts over fences at Prestbury Park. Imperial Commander is now aged 10 and only one 10-year-old, Cool Dawn in 1998, has won the Gold Cup since ’93. Conversely, the Fleminsfirth gelding has few miles on the clock for a horse of his age.
Kauto Star became the first horse to regain the Gold Cup in 2009, and Denman, so impressive when winning the Festival showpiece in 2008, will be bidding to emulate his stablemate on March 18. Kauto Star, a top-priced 13-2 with Coral at the time of writing, will join an elite group consisting of Golden Miller, Cottage Rake, Arkle and Best Mate if he manages to register a third Gold Cup victory. However, he was well held in the King George at Kempton in January and, as an 11-year-old, he has a major age stat to overcome: no horse older than 10 has landed this prestigious chase since What A Myth prevailed as a 12-year-old in 1969.
Denman is also 11, so it could be that although he is more than double the price of his two illustrious stablemates, the year younger Neptune Collonges could emerge as champion trainer Paul Nicholls’ best chance of a winner in the 2011 Gold Cup. The grey appeared to be back to his best when landing the Argento Chase at the Gloucestershire venue in his latest start and the 33-1 widely available doesn’t look bad value at all, particularly from an each-way betting perspective.
At the other end of the age scale, Long Run, generally second favourite for the Gold Cup, also has a major stat to overcome. Indeed, no horse aged six has won this race since Mill House in 1963. Nicky Henderson’s charge was an emphatic winner of the King George when last seen out, but there are still many that question whether the French import possesses the requisite stamina for the Gold Cup’s 3m 2½f trip, especially on an undulating track like Cheltenham.
Irish raiders Kempes and Pandorama are progressive types, while Midnight Chase has gone from strength-to-strength this season. The last-named is unbeaten in four starts over fences at Cheltenham (his last three victories have all been gained at the track) and his bold jumping will be an asset. The scene is set for a fascinating Gold Cup and it will be most interesting to see whether punters decide that Imperial Commander is a banker or blowout shortly before 3.20 on the last day of the 2011 Festival.
For more information on the Gold Cup see our gold cup trends page, gold cup tips page or check out a list of the top runners in the 2011 gold cup here.
Please give us your opnion below of who will win the 2011 Gold Cup. Is Imperial Commander a banker?