Why Take Note Of Stats?

In the most competitive races it often pays to take strong notice of the stats for previous winners. There is a reason a certain type of horse wins a race year after year and the World Hurdle is no exception. In this year’s World Hurdle we can start chucking horses out based on the stats on this page World Hurdle Stats.

This Year’s World Hurdle Hopefuls

We can’t see each horse’s final prep run yet which will be important but we can start ruling some horses out. The main contenders at this stage are:

Punchestowns – One of the few runners in this year’s event to fit the MUST HAVE stat for either not running in the previous year’s Festival or running in the World Hurdle or Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. He has won at Cheltenham, won both his starts this year and is likely to go to the Festival with three races on his back this season, winning at least half his starts.

Kasbah Bliss – Came second in last year’s World Hurdle which can be determined as a positive but has not run over jumps this season and has never won at Cheltenham in four starts which means he is probably playing for a minor role again if participating.

Blazing Bailey – Ran in last year’s World Hurdle but only came fourth which is a big negative. He has also not yet won over hurdles this season so has to be overlooked.

Big Bucks – Would be an unusual winner of the World Hurdle having taken in the Jewson Novices Handicap Chase at last year’s Festival. That is a negative in itself and finishing outside of the top two in that race is another negative. Has at least won a race this season and won at Cheltenham.

Fair Along – Fails the vital stat of having run in either the World Hurdle or Supreme Novices’ Hurdle if running at the previous year’s Festival. He has won this season and has a decent enough Cheltenham record (4 from 11) but is overlooked because of his Champion Chase run last year.

Mobaasher – Another who ran in the ‘wrong’ race last year, the Pertemps Final Handicap Hurdle and has also not won yet this season in three attempts.

Duc De Regniere – Didn’t run at last year’s Festival but has failed to win in two attempts at Cheltenham which is somewhat a negative. Has won this season and another decent run before the World Hurdle would give him some chance at a big price.

So Who Do We Back?

Punchestowns looks a great bet for stats followers and even though he is favourite he still looks a good bet in a year that very few rivals meet anywhere near enough of the stats to be considered. Should win.

Several of the fancied horses such as Kasbah Bliss and Big Bucks will probably run well but don’t look half as solid as the favourite and one at a big price that could go well is Duc De Regniere who may fit some of the best stats depending on his next run.

Check Back Soon

I will revisit this after the final prep runs but it does look as though Punchestowns is an outstanding bet in this race and could be one of the bankers of the meeting. That is unlikely to change between now and the time this blog is updated but one or two other contenders might emerge between now and then based on the stats.

Share Your Thoughts With Us

Do you fancy one of the stats no hopers such as Blazing Bailey? If so make a case for it and let us know what you think. He may be one of the favourites (at time of writing) but we think he has no chance.

If you think we are wrong to hold stats for the World Hurdle in such high regard then reply to this blog and make a case for only considering form. Are there any bigger priced horses that are due to run in the World Hurdle that we haven’t considered that fit the stats perfectly? If there are then we want to know about it.

Why Take Note Of Stats?

In the most competitive races it often pays to take strong notice of the stats for previous winners and the Cheltenham Gold Cup is one of the most competitive races you can find. There is a reason a certain type of horse wins the race year after year, it takes that kind of horse to win the Gold Cup. In this year’s Gold Cup we can start chucking horses out based on the stats on this page Cheltenham Gold Cup Stats.

This Year’s Gold Cup Hopefuls

We can’t see each horse’s final prep run yet which will be important but we can start ruling some horses out. The main contenders at this stage are:

Denman – Yet to run this season at the time of writing. He meets the stats that he can have at this stage but the lack of run is a big worry. No horse in the last ten years has won with less than two starts that term (and the ones that raced only twice both won twice so were obviously exceptional). There is no doubt that Denman is exceptional but he would have to win the AON Chase at Newbury (which is expected to be his only run) to be anywhere near considered.

Kauto Star – Having won the King George Chase at Kempton on his previous outing is a big positive but he was beaten whilst finishing in last year’s Gold Cup which is a big negative.

Neptune Collonges – Not only beaten in last year’s Gold Cup which is a negative but has also failed to win in five runs at Cheltenham which pretty much rules him out.

Albertas Run – Just like last year’s winner Denman he won the Royal & SunAlliance the year before taking on the Gold Cup. Has also won two out of three races at Cheltenham. The negative is he has not won a race so far this season but if he wins his final prep race he will go to the Gold Cup with a massive chance.

Exotic Dancer – Won the Lexus Chase easily but has been beaten in two previous Gold Cups which is a massive negative. If he was taking in his first Gold Cup this year he would have most stats in his favour but the fact is he probably isn’t quite good enough.

Barbers Shop – One of the younger horses in the line up and four of the last five horses who were winning their first Gold Cup were seven years old. Has won this season and finished 2^nd at last years Festival which are plusses. He is one of the few in the race that can potentially pass every MUST HAVE stat come race time. He will need to run once more in the next few weeks and place in that race to do so.

Tidal Bay – Won at last year’s Festival and has a good record at Cheltenham which is good. He has won this season and is another who is likely to pass most stats if not all unless he runs again before the Festival and unplaces.

Star De Mohaison – Has a fair Cheltenham record (2 from 6) but didn’t run at last year’s Festival which is a negative. Has also yet to win a race this season so far.

So Who Do We Back?

Those at the head of the market are failing some very important stats and for most it is going to be impossible to go to the race as the stats choice for one reason or another. This is good for punters as it means we are left with value selections.

Tidal Bay is the main stats pick at this stage but he could still go for other races at the Festival. The fact he has never been out of the top two means if he does go for the Gold Cup he will be a fantastic each way bet.

Barbers Shop is another who looks very good on the stats and at a nice price can be backed each way. Albertas Run needs a win this season if he is going to warrant a bet but excuses can be made for his defeats this season and even if he doesn’t win this season before the Gold Cup he could still carry a small interest.

Check Back Soon

The final prep runs are going to tell us more about each horse and narrow things down further. It is strongly possible that in a couple of weeks there will be one big priced clear pick for the stats and that will certainly be worth a bet. An update will be made after the final preps.

Share Your Thoughts With Us

Do you fancy one of the stats no hopers such as Neptune Collonges? If so make a case for it and let us know what you think. He may be one of the favourites (at time of writing) but we think he has no chance.

If you think we are wrong to hold Cheltenham Gold Cup stats in such high regard then reply to this blog and make a case for only considering form. Are there any bigger priced horses that we haven’t considered that fit the stats perfectly? If there are then we want to know about it.

Why Take Note Of Stats?

In the most competitive races it often pays to take strong notice of the stats for previous winners. There is a reason a certain type of horse wins a race year after year, it takes that kind of horse to win the race. In this year’s Champion Chase we can start chucking horses out based on the stats on this page Champion Chase Stats.

This Year’s Champion Chase Hopefuls

We can’t see each horse’s final prep run yet which will be important but we can start ruling some horses out. The main contenders at this stage are:

Master Minded – Looks by far the most likely winner. If he wins the Game Spirit Chase at Newbury like last season he will meet every single criteria.

Big Zeb – Not much to go on yet as didn’t run at last year’s Festival and hasn’t run at Cheltenham. At the time of writing he has had just one start this year and won it so if he races just once more before the Festival (more than one is very unlikely) he will fail the number of runs stat and if he doesn’t run he again he will fail the days between final prep race and the Festival stat.

Petit Robin – Has run at Cheltenham but not won there so that rules it out.

Voy Por Ustedes – Needs to win this season and likely to go for the Ryan Air Chase (where it should win) but passed over for this.

Tidal Bay – Won the Arkle Chase last year and has a good record at Cheltenham in his favour but he could go for either the Ryan Air Chase or the Gold Cup so hold your bets at this stage.

Well Chief – Fits the not having run at last year’s Festival and having won at Cheltenham stat but has not run since April 2007 so would need to run once and win before the Festival to be considered stats wise.

Twist Magic – Two poor runs at Cheltenham and running poorly at the previous year’s Festival make Twist Magic a horse to avoid. Hasn’t won yet this season either.

Takeroc – Would fit a number of stats if winning in the next few weeks but needs to do exactly that to be considered.

So Who Do We Back?

No prizes for originality but short priced favourite Master Minded is the stats choice by a mile. With the short price you may decide that a punt on a very large winning distance is the best value (10 lengths looks probable, 15 lengths is likely and more than 20 should even be considered).

There is also money to be made in who will finish second to Master Minded. There is a without Master Minded market and of course you can always place forecasts on the Champion Chase. Voy Por Ustedes and Tidal Bay are both likely to be running in other Festival races but would appeal if participating and Well Chief could give it a go if running in and winning a prep run soon.

If those three fail to make it then Big Zeb or at a much bigger price Takeroc should be given a chance to finish second.

Check Back Soon

Master Minded looks an easy winner at the moment but at the price it could be best to wait until closer to the race before getting involved. After the prep races we will be able to rule a few more horses in or out so that we can then decide what will come second. I will revisit this blog once all the preps are out of the way.

Share Your Thoughts With Us

Do you fancy one of the stats no hopers such as Petit Robin? If so make a case for it and let us know what you think. He may be one of the favourites (at time of writing) but we think he has no chance.

If you think we are wrong to hold stats in such high regard then reply to this blog and make a case for only considering form. Are there any bigger priced horses that we haven’t considered that fit the stats perfectly? If there are then we want to know about it.

This Year’s Champion Hurdle Hopefuls

We can’t see each horse’s final prep run yet which will be important but we can start ruling some horses out. The main contenders at this stage are:

Binocular – Ticks several boxes but fails others. If he wins his final start then he is obviously a contender but at the price now, it may be better to look elsewhere for value.

Sublimity - Serious question marks as is 9 years old and has poorer than 50% Cheltenham win record.

Crack Away Jack – Won at last year’s Festival and has 100% Cheltenham win record but is only five years old.

Celestial Halo – Won at last year’s Festival and has 100% Cheltenham win record but is only five years old.

Katchit – Won at last year’s Festival and has more than 50% Cheltenham win record (one defeat in six)

Osana - Serious question marks as has poorer than 50% Cheltenham win record.

Punjabi - Serious question marks as has poorer than 50% Cheltenham win record.

Sizing Europe – Overlooked as ran poorly at last year’s Festival

Snap Tie – Serious question marks as has poorer than 50% Cheltenham win record.

Jered – Overlooked as did not run at last year’s Festival and has never run at Cheltenham.

Hurricane Fly – Overlooked as did not run at last year’s Festival and has never run at Cheltenham.

Harchibald – Overlooked as ran poorly at last year’s Festival

So Who Do We Back?

Celestial Halo and Crack Away Jack have already been well beaten by the current Champion Hurdle favourite Binocular but there is always a chance form will be turned around, as it often is, at Cheltenham. Both Celestial Halo and Crack Away Jack have a 100% record at Cheltenham. Once the trio have had their final runs we can rule out any of them that don’t win that run.

Katchit would look a great bet on stats but has been very much out of form this season. If he gets back to his old ways and wins his final prep race that would put him bang in there with a fantastic chance. A win for Katchit and defeat for the three five year olds in their final prep runs would make Katchit look an amazing bet according to the stats.

Check Back Soon

With the final prep runs still to be had for many of the top contenders it may be best to hold your bets until they have been run. I will revisit this blog once all the preps are out of the way.

Share Your Thoughts With Us

Do you fancy one of the stats no hopers such as Sublimity? If so make a case for it and let us know what you think. He may be a previous winner and second favourite (at time of writing) but we think he has no chance.

If you think we are wrong to hold these key looking stats in such high regard then reply to this blog and make a case for only considering form. Are there any bigger priced horses that we haven’t considered that fit the stats perfectly? If there are then we want to know about it.