It is the view of many that this year’s Cheltenham Gold Cup is a two horse race. I disagree and believe it is a wide open event in which there is plenty of each way value.

Kauto Star is obviously a class act who has beaten the best Gold Cup contenders but there is still a question mark over his jumping. When winning last year’s Cheltenham Gold Cup every one of his backers had their heart in their mouth as he just about made it over the last and he has made a similar mistake in most of his other races. Sooner or later these mistakes are going to cost him and I am betting it on being sooner rather than later.

In last year’s Gold Cup Ruby kept Kauto Star out of trouble by going around the outside of the field the whole way. It was a rough old race with a loose horse causing havoc and their were a few more hard luck stories than were reported. Had Kauto Star been near the rail then it could have been a very different outcome. Luck doesn’t always go your way and in my opinion Kauto Star has had his fair share of luck.

As for Denman, many would argue that winning the Hennessy off top weight would guarantee stamina for the Gold Cup. In a previous blog I have already brought up the shocking record of Hennessy winners in the Gold Cup so not only does Denman have to overcome that, but he also has to prove his stamina. Newbury is a very different track to Cheltenham and with four wins at the course it could be argued that Denman is a bit of a Newbury specialist.

I also have my doubts about some of the horses Denman has beat. Dream Alliance was second in the Hennessy and has failed to finish in his subsequent three races. He was unimpressive when beating ok horses in the Lexus and then he won by a large distance against nothing of note last time out at Newbury.

So if they won’t win, what will? Exotic Dancer would be very interesting back at Cheltenham but there are serious doubts about that one’s fitness and I think it is fairly obvious that if it does turn up it won’t be 100%. Kicking King is still interesting despite his poor run last time out. I think we will see the real Kicking King next Friday and don’t forget the horse is a previous Gold Cup Winner. The Cheltenham Gold Cup betting is all wrong and 33/1 is massive.

Tom Segal, aka Racing Post’s Pricewise can be the punter’s best friend at times, scoring some great bets at great prices. His winning streak in the summer of 2005 has been well documented but it seems you only hear about his tips when he wins.

In recent years his tips seem to have gone downhill as has the amount of big price tips he has given. These days it seems he tips a 4/1 near the head of the market each week. Add to that the near impossibility of getting on at the advised prices and this column is becoming less influential every week.

With the Cheltenham Festival just a week away he is bound to have his followers and his selections will be massively overbet as usual. Although the Racing Post can show he has made a profit at the recommended prices, the same bets at SP would have made a loss. One advised tactic is to lay the Pricewise selections just before the race at a much shorter price than they were in the morning.

Another tactic, the best one, is to make your own mind up. Bet on what you fancy and you are much more likely to show a profit in the long term if you are betting because YOU fancy something. If you are not the greatest horse racing punter in the world then it is often better to bet to smaller stakes.

If you are looking for good tips then don’t follow Pricewise or over overhyped tipsters. At www.olbg.co.uk you can see the record of large numbers of tipsters and how they fare on different sports. There are many tipsters showing a profit and you can also see who is tipping what in each race. A useful tool for any horse racing punter.