With Cheltenham’s January meeting just about to take place it seemed a good idea to examine what chances the meeting has of producing a Gold Cup winner and where the Gold Cup winner usually comes from.

Tomorrow’s Letherby and Christopher Chase looks between Our Vic and Neptune Collonges. With both priced at 50/1 for the Cheltenham Gold Cup it seems that this can’t really be deemed a valid trial.

These are the routes to the Gold Cup the eventual winners took since 2000.

2000 – Looks Like Trouble – Pulled up in the King George, won the Pillar (now the Letherby and Christopher Chase)

2001 – Abandoned

2002 – Best Mate – Runner up in the King George

2003 – Best Mate – Won the King George

2004 – Best Mate – Won the Lexus

2005 – Kicking King – Won the King George

2006 – War Of Attrition -Runner up in the Lexus

2007 – Kauto Star -  Won the King George

Earlier in the season I highlighted the poor record of Hennessy Gold Cup winners and from the above evidence it is absolutely essential that a Gold Cup hopeful at least contests either the King George or the Lexus, without necessarily winning. If your ante post ticket contains a horse who was resting over the Christmas period, you might as well rip it up now.

Two years ago one of the leading contenders  for the 2006 Cheltenham Gold Cup was ruled out. That horse has  not seen a racecourse since.

After winning the 2005 Cheltenham Gold Cup in impressive fashion having been ruled out of the race just weeks before, he was supposed to take over the Gold Cup mantle from the aging Best Mate. It’s a shame that he did not get to defend his crown the following year as he was a star in the making.

However, it seems that the talented Kicking King could be back sooner rather than later. He is set to run in the Normans Grove Chase at Fairyhouse, now scheduled for Wednesday after waterlogging claimed the race on Sunday. Even if he is back to his best he will surely come on for the run but it will be very interesting to see how he gets on.

His best form might leave him behind Kauto Star but we all know he is going to hit the deck soon enough in one of these top races. Kicking King is a 33/1 shot in this year’s Gold Cup and that has to be worth an each way bet, if only for old times sake.

Black Jack Ketchum was hailed with almost as much hype as Kauto Star now receives after he won the Grade 2 Novices Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival in 2006 by an impressive nine lengths and then followed up with Grade 1 Sefton Novices Hurdle at Aintree with another easy win, this time by five lengths. Both races were won on the bridle with Tony McCoy seemingly literally laughing at his fellow jockeys as he cruised past them.

Since then he has failed to live up to expectations so what has gone wrong?

In those races he beat some decent horses such as Neptune Collognes who has won the Punchestown Gold Cup since. This would suggest he wasn’t just looking good beating poor horses . So what has the problem been then? One theory which I believe is he is not really a strong stayer at all. his speed was what enabled him to travel so strongly and as a novice stamina is not to thoroughly tested. This would explain why decent stayer Neptune Collognes was beaten.

Since his Aintree win, which was his  seventh win in as many starts, he has won just two of his subsequent seven races. The most promising run was possibly his second (admittedly by 13 lengths) to Mighty Man last season. He travelled very well but found very little under pressure, again suggesting stamina is not his strong point.

His latest start in January this year saw him pulled up towards the end of the race after a complete no show. He may also have some problems that haven’t seen the light of day but as far as his career is concerned I would love to see him contest the Champion Hurdle on good ground this year. It looks an open race and a strong pace over that trip may just bring out the best in him.

How do you think Black Jack Ketchum should be campaigned? Have we seen the best of him? Let us know your thoughts.

Denman’s performance in the Lexus Chase at Leopardstown didn’t satisfy people in the same way that his stablemate Kauto Star had done a few days before at Kempton but for me it was the performance that decided where my money is going in the Gold Cup.

Kauto Star may have the star quality but the question marks regarding his jumping at Cheltenham remain in my mind but with Denman this area looks rock solid.

Denman’s attacking style of running has been a joy to watch in his last three runs and this front running style will test Kauto Star’s jumping and stamina in a way it has never been tested before.

I can’t wait for the Gold Cup and only wish I was on at a bigger price!

The market for the Supreme Novices is starting to take shape and the recent wins of Khyber Kim at Newbury and Whatuthink at Leopardstown have attracted some interest from the bookmakers.

Oliver McKiernan’s Whatuthink was the game, all-the-way winner of the Future Champions Novice Hurdle and his victory was perhaps most notable in that it appears to have burst the bubble of Cork All Star. Jessica Harrington’s Champion Bumper Winner finished 3 lengths third here and confirmed the fact that his jumping would need to improve markedly if he is going to be a factor in a Cheltenham Novice Hurdle.

The winner has been cut to around 16/1 at the time of writing but that looks a little skinny for the shorter Novice race at Cheltenham as there is stamina in abundance in Whatuthink’s pedigree and doesn’t appeal as Supreme winner.

More interesting is the Nicky Henderson trained Newbury winner, Khyber Kim. Listed class on the flat he has had his problems with injury but appears to be highly thought of by his powerful yard and has been the subject of strong support since his opening victory. Perhaps, his potential fragility is a worry but he looks one to consider for that all important opening race of the 2008 Cheltenham Festival.

The World Hurdle had been looking a bit of a dull betting heat with double champion Inglis Drever dominating the market but the Steel Plate and Sections Hurdle at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day has certainly given things a bit of a kick.

The race had been billed as mainly concerning Afsoun, Black Jack Ketchum and Witchita Lineman but Alan King’s Blazing Bailey proved much too strong for them all and recorded a convincing victory.

I’m not too happy with the result though as I had marked Blazing Bailey down as the stayer to follow for this season after his honourable third in the World Hurdle. I’d been primed and ready to back him this season as I was convinced he would impriove with another year on his back but he has turned in two abject performances and I was beginning to wonder if something was amiss.

Now, of course, after demolishing the Steel Plate field Blazing Bailey is down to around the 6/1 mark for the 2008 World Hurdle and whilst there is still some appeal in that price, it’s not what it should have been.

Pundits on Attheraces were not overly impressed with the standard of opposition put up against Blazing Bailey stating that the bookmakers have overreacted by cutting him to single figures for the staying crown. I have to disagree. I appreciate that the Jonjo O’Neill horses might not have been at their best but this looked a race full of quality and Alan King’s young horse has more scope than most at the top of the betting in this market and warrants very close inspection.

Give us your thoughts on the World Hurdle – Do you think Blazing Bailey is the horse to beat or is there an outsider way down in the betting that could give us a better run for our money?