With a seemingly effortless victory in the King George Kauto Star has now won nine out of his last eleven races and is now a short price to record victory in his second Cheltenham Gold Cup.

However, all the eulogising in the newspapers and on television doesn’t sit well with me as for some reason Kauto Star doesn’t inspire the type of confidence that would make me want to part with cash on a 6/4 shot for a race like the Gold Cup.

But is that just me? Let’s look at the facts.

Kauto Star’s Record

Two Tingle Creek’s

Two King George’s

A Gold Cup

A Betfair Chase

Also, Paul Nicholls’ soon to be eight year old has 14 wins from 24 total career starts and he has amassed over a £1 million pounds in win and place prize money. Not only that but Phil Smith, the senior BHA handicapper, is considering putting Kauto Star’s rating up to 180 to match the highest rating handed out since Desert Orchid. End of argument then surely? This is a jumping machine? Well, maybe?

What Has He Beat?

I appreciate you can only beat what is put in front of you but does continually beating Exotic Dancer make you a “great” horse? In this year’s King George we had the sad injury to Taranis, the non performance of My Way De Solzen, the non stayer Racing Demon and Exotic Dancer being ridden differently in a desperate attempt to beat a horse who has had his measure four times before. This leaves the runner up, the admirable, but frankly, no world beater Our Vic. Granted it was a demolition but wouldn’t any of the recent good King George winners have managed the same sort of result given that kind of opposition?

I find it difficult to forget how Clive Smith’s pride and joy laboured giving 10lb to L’ami in last years Aon Chase (admittedly there were excuses) or, more worryingly, the way he seemed to get fed up mid race against a blatantly not 100% fit Monet’s Garden at Aintree on his reappearance.

Gold Cup Value?

Does all this make Kauto Star a 6/4 shot for the Gold Cup? Well, why not give us your thoughts?
I wouldn’t want to back a horse who has paid two visits to Cheltenham and fell once (2006 Champion Chase) and had every short price punter’s hearts in their mouths at his last fence mistake on the way to victory in the 2007 Gold Cup.

I’d like to see Kauto Star have a proper race against another truly top class three mile chaser before I start worshipping at his altar. Let’s hope Denman or something else turns up to give him a true test in March 2008. Then, perhaps, the headline writers will really earn their money.

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Osana won the Boylesports International Hurdle on Saturday by eight lengths from Katchit and is now only 8/1 to win the Champion Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. There is little doubt that he got an east lead on a day where a few horses were given too much leeway out in front and with several of his fancied rivals failing to show their best it may be wise not to get carried away with the form.

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Last year’s Champion Hurdle winner Sublimity is set to go off as favourite for his reappearance in the Boylesports International Hurdle on Saturday but the jury is still out on him in many quarters and he should come on for the run so makes no appeal in the betting for Saturday or for Cheltenham at this stage (should drift after this race).

One who appeals is Triumph Hurdle winner Katchit. Punjabi’s proximity to Katchit at Cheltenham and Aintree last season suggest that Katchit is at least ten lengths better at Cheltenham. If that’s anywhere near the case then Katchit will take all the beating on Saturday which will be his third run of the season. He will hold a fitness edge over half of his rivals and can be backed at 5/1 with Paddy Power for Saturday’s race and 9/1 with Coral for the Champion Hurdle itself. A win would see him cut to about 5/1 for the Champion Hurdle with an impressive victory taking off another point or two. The recommendation at this stage would be to back him each way for Saturday (looks sure to be in the frame) and have a win bet for the Champion Hurdle. At the very least you should be able to lay off next week for a nice profit.

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Twist Magic was backed into 2/1 favouritism for the Champion Chase after putting up an impressive performance in spite of the testing ground at Sandown. Voy Por Ustedes remains a 4/1 best price second favourite haveing been beaten into second for the second year running.

There is a slight doubt about Twist Magic as he fell on his only run at Cheltenham so far and with this price likely to stay until his next run it isn’t advisable to back him now.

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Voy Por Ustedes is a general 3/1 chance in the Cheltenham Festival betting for the Champion Chase in March and the 11/8 favourite for the Tingle Creek at Sandown on Saturday.

Voy Por Ustedes is very likely to win tomorrow and the soft ground will certainly not be an inconvenience. A win should see at least half a point (depending on how convincing the victory is) shaved off the 3/1 for the Champion Chase but in all likelihood we will probably be looking at 2/1 on Saturday evening. It is worth backing Voy Por Ustedes now for the Champion Chase and probably worth taking the 11/8 for tomorrow.

5/1 second favourite for the Champion Chase, Twist Magic, is also running but his best form is on good ground and if you fancy him for Cheltenham you will surely get a bigger price on Saturday evening than you will now.

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After putting up the performance of the season so far by winning the Hennessy Gold Cup by 11 lengths, Paul Nicholls’ Denman has now displaced Kauto Star as Cheltenham Gold Cup favourite with some bookmakers.

He is now as short as 6/4 with Coral, whilst Sporting Bet, Blue Square and William Hill share best price of 9/4. Those of you who followed Friday’s advice will be sitting on a 5/1 voucher and if you haven’t laid off already you may wish to wait until after the Lexus Chase which is likely to be his next target. That race would appear to be at his mercy and another win would surely see his price for the Gold Cup shorten further.

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