In recent years the winners of the Hennessy have gone on to run in the Cheltenham Gold Cup as one of the more fancied records but regularly fail to make the grade.

2006 Winner State Of Play finished 6th in the Gold Cup at 8/1
2005 Winner Trabolgan missed the Gold Cup through injury
2004 Winner Celestial Gold finished 7th in the Gold Cup at 9/2
2003 Winner Strong Flow missed that season’s Gold Cup through injury but finished 6th in the following season’s at 5/1

Denman is currently a general 7/2 favourite for the Hennessy and is 5/1 second favourite for the Gold Cup. This will have to be a very good performance from Denman if he is to win on his seasonal reappearance carrying top weight in one of the most competitive handicaps of the jumps season.

It may sound odd but Denman may hold a better chance in the Cheltenham Gold Cup if he doesn’t win. Not only do Hennessy winners have a bad record but it is likely he will have to be at peak fitness to lump this weight around and win and it is unlikely he can be kept at peak fitness until March by which team he would surely be over the top.

So the best bet at this stage? Back Denman for the Cheltenham Gold Cup before the Hennessy with a view to laying off after the race at shorter odds. If Denman wins or runs well his odds should come in for the Cheltenham Gold Cup and a profit can be guaranteed. It will take a very poor performance for Denman to drift and if that happens you should get a good price about him the next time he runs when he should have improved for his seasonal reappearance.

Reaction the betting moves ofter the race will be available on Monday.

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After the thrilling Betfair Chase on Saturday it seems that the main two contenders for the Cheltenham Gold Cup are last season’s first two home, Kauto Star and Exotic Dancer. Kauto Star held off a late challenge from Exotic Dancer with Beef Or Salmon way back in third.

Katuo Star is now 2/1 from 5/2 with Sporting Bet but the biggest market mover was Exotic Dancer who is 7/1 from 10/1 with Paddy Power.

The biggest threat to their dominance seems to be Denman, the current second favourite for the Gold Cup and he should be making his seasonal debut at Newbury on Saturday in the Hennessey Gold Cup. When the final declarations have been made check back for the best bets in the race and for Cheltenham with market moves in mind.

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Last season’s Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Kauto Star will face six rivals as he bids to repeat last year’s Betfair Chase win at Haydock, the first leg of the Betfair Million.

Kauto Star is likely to win the race but is only around even money so isn’t really a betting proposition considering last month’s slightly lackluster reappearance. He should be all the better for that outing but if you fancy him consider backing him for either the King George at 6/4 with Sporting Bet, which takes place at Kempton on Boxing Day or for the Gold Cup at 5/2 with Sporting Bet as he still may have more improvement to come this season in terms of fitness.

My Way De Solzen is a 11/4 second favourite for the Betfair Chase with Totesport and can be backed generally at 8/1 for the Cheltenham Gold Cup. This is likely to prove the easier race of the two so consider backing him for this race rather than the Gold Cup itself.

Cheltenham Gold Cup second and third, Exotic Dancer and Turpin Green both re oppose Kauto Star but there is no reason to think they will reverse the form. The best trade of the weekend could be to back Exotic Dancer for the Gold Cup before the Betfair Chase as he is currently 10/1 for the big race with Paddy Power and William Hill and should improve greatly for his seasonal reappearance as he did last season. A good run here should see him shortened by at least a couple of points.

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Last year’s Cheltenham Gold Cup winner, Kauto Star, could face My Way De Solzen and Cheltenham Gold Cup runner up Exotic Dancer in Saturday’s Betfair Chase at Haydock.

Paul Nicholls’ stable star is likely to be a warm order for the race despite the fact that regular pilot, Ruby Walsh, is on the sidelines following his injury on Saturday.

Later in the week when the full declarations have been made we will give you the best information on what to back for the race and more importantly, what to back for the Cheltenham Gold Cup with post race market moves in mind.

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The biggest market mover after Cheltenham’s November Paddy Power meeting was Alan King’s Franchoek who is bidding to follow in the footsteps of last year’s Triumph Hurdle winner Katchit from the same yard. Franchoek took the Juvenile Novice’s Hurdle by an impressive eight lengths and was cut from 20/1 into a best price of 8/1 with the bookies willing to take no chances. Franchoek is likely to be seen next either at Cheltenham next month or at Chepstow in Welsh National day in December. Another win is likely to see yet another crash in price so it may be worth getting on now.

Blazing Bailey, one of the leading hopes for the World Hurdle, put in a very poor display in the Lombard Properties Handicap Hurdle and drifted out to 14/1 for the big race with Victor Chandler, Stan James and William Hill. Carrying top weight on a first run of the season on ground firmer than ideal might explain it to a certain extent but plenty of improvement is going to be required if he is to play a hand at the festival next Spring. Having said that, 14/1 is a very big price and it might be worth a small bet at this stage with the horse’s ability already proven.

Another horse already very familiar with Cheltenham is Alan King’s Voy Por Ustedes who narrowly failed to give two stone to Kalca Mome in the Paddy Power Handicap Chase on Sunday. That performance left Voy Por Ustedes more or less unchanged in the market for the Champion Chase and Blue Square hold the best price of 9/2. Next stop is the Tingle Creek in which he finished second to Kauto Star last year on his seasonal reappearance and he looks very much the one to beat. Taking Blue Square’s 9/2 is probably the best strategy right now as he is only going to improve on this effort and is likely to be gambled on if taking the Tingle Creek.

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Last season’s Paddy Power Gold Cup produced Exotic Dancer who went on to be runner up in the Cheltenham Gold Cup and if there is one horse in this year’s field that is open to massive improvement it is the current favourite for the race Granit Jack, trained by Paul Nicholls.

The horse is only five years old and has had just a handful of starts and could turn out to be anything, but it is likely to be a year or two before it is contesting the biggest races at the Festival. In the mean time there is a very low handicap mark to exploit.

Also in action on Saturday is Blazing Bailey, one of the favourites for this season’s World Hurdle having finished a very creditable third last year. The Lombard Properties Handicap Hurdle on Saturday is a race he should win comfortably but off top weight on his first outing this season on ground that is firmer than ideal, he shouldn’t be backed for the race or for the World Hurdle, for now at least.

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The Paddy Power Gold Cup meeting takes place this weekend (Friday to Sunday) and there should be plenty of pointers for the Festival itself. Last year’s Paddy Power Gold Cup winner, Exotic Dancer, went on to be a gallant second to Kauto Star in the Gold Cup at the Cheltenham Festival and those on early will have had a very juicy price.

Once the final declarations have been made for the weekend we will tell you what bets to make now for the Festival so that you gain the best value as early as possible.

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Current Cheltenham Gold Cup favourite Kauto Star suffered defeat on his first start of the season, his first defeat since falling in the 2006 Champion Chase. Monet’s Garden beat last year’s Gold Cup winner by 1 1/2 length but the winner was in receipt of a full 14 lbs which means Kauto Star emerges as by far the best horse in the race.

Kauto Star was expected to come on for the run but didn’t travel as smoothly as usual and had to be pushed along at half way to keep up with his rivals. It is far too early to be writing him off and it will be interesting to see how he travels in his next outing.

Kauto Star remains the favourite for the Cheltenham Gold Cup and is a stand out price of 5/2 with Sportingbet.

The winner deserves plenty of credit as the trainer suggested he would not only improve for this outing but probably the next one as well. He has already proved himself an Aintree specialist with three wins at the course and is one to consider for the Grand National Festival rather than the Cheltenham Festival.

Last year’s Cheltenham Gold Cup runner up, Exotic Dancer, completely failed to run his race finishing 20 lengths behind the favourite. He has always needed his seasonal reappearance and much better can be expected next time out. He remains very much a challenger for Kauto Star’s crown and it should be noted that Paddy Power go 10/1 about him improving on last season’s second.

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